#比特币行情观察 Bitcoin big dump 30%, has it really entered a Bear Market? A comprehensive assessment using 5 analytical frameworks.

1️⃣ The Fear and Greed Index currently stands at 15 (Extreme Fear), and market panic has persisted for a month. Extreme fear often accompanies a sell-off cycle, reinforcing downward pressure. If the index remains below 20, it may trigger further liquidations. However, historical data shows that extreme fear presents a buying opportunity. The current panic may be nearing the bottom, with a short-term rebound expected. This analytical framework indicates that we are in a short-term Bear Market, but not a transition from Bull to Bear.
2️⃣ Technical analysis of the 50-day/200-day MA indicator shows that the death cross (short-term MA crossing below long-term MA) has been confirmed, similar to the starting point of the 2022 Bear Market. From a technical perspective, this is now a strong bear market signal, and the trend is reversing, with a lower target of $74,000-$80,000. The RSI (14-day) indicator has rapidly fallen from 70+ (overbought) to 35 (oversold), accompanied by high volatility. The short-term oversold condition suggests a rebound, but without breaking 30, there is no strong reversal. Therefore, from the technical indicators, it is clear that we are in a bear market, but the oversold condition suggests a possible rebound within 1-2 weeks.
3️⃣ Fundamental Analysis ETF Inflows: $61.9 billion flowed in throughout the year, but turned into outflows after Q3. Institutions (like MicroStrategy) are still accumulating chips, but retail panic has intensified selling pressure. Market Liquidity: First, there was a government shutdown in the US, with the Treasury not injecting funds into the market, and on top of that, the divergence over interest rate cuts in December has increased overall uncertainty. The correlation between Bitcoin and traditional markets has risen to 0.6-0.7, influenced by interest rates, inflation, and liquidity, with 2025 primarily still facing macro tightening. From a fundamental perspective, it is still a bull market now, or even a long-term bull, with no major influx of liquidity yet, but the short-term outflow can be seen as a market correction.
4️⃣ On-chain data analysis of active addresses: down 20% from the peak. Trading volume: big dump of 30%. Holding addresses: long-term holding (>1 year) accounts for 65%, UTXO age distribution still shows accumulation, not panic selling. On-chain weakness indicates the market is very bearish now, but holding behavior data shows that this is not a complete collapse.
5️⃣ Market cycle analysis indicates that the traditional 4-year cycle driven by Bitcoin halving has transformed in 2025, mainly due to the influence of ETFs and the entry of traditional capital. Typically, 19 months after halving, historical peak prices should be higher, but the supply absorption by ETFs has altered the dynamics, weakening the peak effect. Similar to the late cycle of 2017, a rebound is expected after a 20% fall. Therefore, the bull market may extend until 2026, with a target price still at 200k. To summarize, have we really entered a bear market? In the short term (1-3 months), we have entered a bear market correction, with technical, on-chain, and macro indicators consistently showing downward pressure, targeting a point between 70-80k, with a probability of 40%. However, we have not yet entered a full bear market; institutional ETFs and on-chain holding behaviors indicate that the fundamental base remains stable, with no risk of a collapse, and the cycle may extend until 2026.