The 25BP rate hike by the Bank of Japan was already expected by the market, so the actual announcement was not the key point. The crucial factor to watch is the Governor's speech at 2:30 this afternoon — that is the signal the market needs to closely monitor.

What is the real highlight this time? It's not the 25 basis points itself, but whether Japan has room to continue raising interest rates. Will it form a sustained rate hike cycle? Will the pace resonate or counteract with the Federal Reserve's future rate cut trajectory?

Once the yen enters a trend of rate hikes, the impact will be significant. The marginal draining effect on global liquidity will far surpass the shock of a one-time adjustment.

From the current market reaction, the volatility in stocks and cryptocurrencies isn't actually intense — in plain terms, the rate hike expectations have already been digested. The real movements are in the currency and bond markets, indicating that funds are quietly adjusting their position cycles and arbitrage strategies. Only when the Governor's speech provides clearer guidance on the outlook will the signals gradually transmit to high-volatility assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Also, pay special attention to an overlay effect: the story of yen rate hikes + today being the quadruple witching day in the US market. The combined influence of these two variables makes short-term price swings quite likely to be amplified. Next week's trading in Japan itself will be limited, and market liquidity around Christmas is usually thin, so many sentiments may already be reflected this week.

At such a time, it’s more practical to focus on managing positions and pace rather than trying to chase the market trend.