Gold forecasts 2026.. Will the yellow metal continue to break records?

Gold experienced extraordinary gains during 2025, with prices surpassing $4,300 per ounce in mid-October before sharply retreating to around $4,000 in November, sparking intense discussions about the expected gold trajectory in 2026 and its potential to reach the $5,000 per ounce barrier. This strong bullish wave was a natural result of several converging factors: a slowdown in global economic growth, the return of accommodative monetary policies, and increasing demand for safe-haven assets as a refuge from financial and geopolitical crises.

Uncertainty surrounding global sovereign debt and supply chain bottlenecks also boosted gold’s appeal as a primary investment protection tool. It seems that what is happening now reflects a fundamental shift in how investors view the yellow metal — not as a short-term speculative commodity, but as a long-term strategic asset to safeguard portfolios from anticipated economic and political disruptions.

Current Technical Picture Reveals a Critical Turning Point

By the end of November 2025, gold prices closed at $4,065 per ounce, after reaching a historic peak of $4,381 in mid-October. From a technical standpoint, the price broke below the ascending channel pattern that extended from August to October but maintains the main upward trend line connecting successive lows around $4,050.

The $4,000 level represents a critical support — a clear daily close below this could send prices toward the $3,800 zone (50% Fibonacci retracement level), while a break above $4,200 indicates the potential to test $4,400 and $4,680 sequentially. The RSI (RSI) remains at the 50 level, reflecting a neutral stance with no clear bias, while the MACD line stays above zero, confirming that the primary trend remains bullish.

Factors Supporting a New Rise: Unprecedented Demand for Gold

Global demand for gold in Q2 2025 hit a record 1,249 tons (up 3% annually), valued at $132 billion (up 45%). The first quarter was also exceptional with 1,206 tons, the highest since 2016. This intense demand came from three main sources:

Gold ETFs: Managed assets exceeded $472 billion with holdings approaching 3,929 tons (historic peak), up 6% from the previous period. Only the US absorbed $21 billion in inflows in the first half, offsetting a 34% decline in consumer and jewelry demand.

New Individual Investors: Data shows that about 28% of new investors in developed markets added gold to their portfolios for the first time, driven by expectations of continued rises and extensive media coverage. These investors maintained their positions even during correction periods, enhancing price stability.

Central Banks: Added 244 tons in Q1 alone (24% above the five-year average), with 44% of global central banks currently holding gold reserves compared to 37% in 2024. China, India, and Turkey led the buyers, with the People’s Bank of China alone adding over 65 tons consecutively.

Weakness Side: Limited Supply Fails to Keep Pace with Strong Demand

Mine production reached 856 tons in Q1 2025, a modest 1% annual increase, insufficient to bridge the widening gap between supply and demand. More critically, recycled gold declined by 1%, as holders preferred to retain their holdings expecting further gains.

On the cost side, the global average extraction cost rose to $1,470 per ounce by mid-2025 — the highest in a decade — limiting incentives for expansion. This structural supply shortage is a strong factor supporting prices as long as institutional demand persists.

Monetary Policy Turning Points: The Fed Eases Pressure

The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates in October 2025 by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75-4.00%, marking the second cut since December 2024. Futures market expectations point to an additional 25 basis point cut in December, making it the third this year.

BlackRock reports suggest that the interest rate could reach 3.4% by the end of 2026 in a moderate scenario. If these cuts materialize, real bond yields will decline, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, thus boosting its appeal as a hedge.

Other major central banks are also moving toward easing: the European Central Bank is currently tightening but may reverse course, and the Bank of Japan remains accommodative, creating a supportive global environment for gold.

Sovereign Debt and Inflation: Ongoing Drivers of Demand

Global public debt has exceeded 100% of GDP, prompting investors to seek safe havens. This fear of fiscal unsustainability led 42% of major hedge funds to increase their gold holdings during Q3 2025.

Although inflationary pressures are expected to ease in 2026, massive debts will remain a persistent concern, making gold a strategic alternative to protect against long-term loss of purchasing power.

Geopolitical Crises Drive Investors Toward Safe Assets

Trade tensions between Washington and Beijing and rising Middle East tensions increased gold demand by 7% year-over-year, according to Reuters. When concerns about the Taiwan Strait escalated in July, prices jumped above $3,400, and the bullish trend continued amid ongoing uncertainty.

This historical pattern indicates that any new geopolitical crisis in 2026 could serve as a strong catalyst for fresh buying waves, potentially pushing prices to record levels.

Dollar and Bond Movements: A Strong Inverse Relationship

The dollar index declined by 7.64% from its peak in early 2025 through the end of November, driven by expectations of rate cuts and slowing growth. US 10-year bond yields also fell from 4.6% in Q1 to 4.07% at the end of November.

This dual decline reduces the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets, prompting institutional investors to diversify away from the dollar. Bank of America analysts see that continued this trend with real yields stabilizing at 1.2%, supporting a scenario of sustained gold price increases in 2026.

Gold Price Forecasts 2026: $5,000 or a Correction?

Major bank predictions:

• HSBC: expects a rally reaching $5,000 in the first half of 2026, with an average of $4,600 (compared to $3,455 in 2025), but with a possible correction toward $4,200 in the second half.

• Bank of America: raised its forecast to $5,000 as a potential peak, with an average of $4,400, warning of short-term corrections if investors take profits.

• Goldman Sachs: adjusted its bullish outlook to $4,900 per ounce, citing strong inflows into gold ETFs and continued central bank buying.

• J.P. Morgan: expects gold to reach around $5,055 by mid-2026.

Most common range: between $4,800 and $5,000 as a potential peak, with an average between $4,200 and $4,800 during 2026.

Gold Outlook in the Middle East

Central banks in the region increased their gold reserves: the Central Bank of Egypt added one ton in Q1, while the Central Bank of Qatar added 3 tons.

In Egypt: optimistic forecasts suggest the price could reach approximately 522,580 EGP per ounce (up 158.46% from current prices).

In Saudi Arabia and the UAE: if prices approach $5,000 per ounce as major banks forecast, this could translate to about 18,750–19,000 SAR (at an exchange rate of 3.75–3.80), and 18,375–19,000 AED respectively (assuming exchange rates and global demand remain stable).

Challenges: The Exit Barrier from the Bullish Wave

Despite optimism, several banks hinted at possible corrections:

• HSBC warned that momentum might weaken in the second half of 2026, with a potential dip to $4,200 on profit-taking, but a sharp decline below $3,800 is unlikely unless a major economic shock occurs.

• Goldman Sachs noted that sustained levels above $4,800 would constitute a “credibility test” — can gold maintain high levels amid weak industrial demand?

• J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank agree that gold has entered a new, more difficult price zone to break downward, thanks to strategic shifts in long-term investor outlooks.

Summary: Multiple Scenarios Ahead

Gold price forecasts for 2026 depend on a battle between three forces: profit-taking by investors who accumulated large positions, versus ongoing buying waves from central banks and new institutional investors, and unexpected geopolitical and economic developments.

In the optimistic scenario: if real yields continue to decline, the dollar remains weak, and uncertainty persists, gold could hit new all-time highs near $5,000 or higher.

In the cautious scenario: if inflation is brought under control, market confidence returns, and real interest rates rise, the metal may enter a prolonged stabilization phase around $4,200–$4,400.

What is certain is that gold is no longer just a speculative commodity — it has become a core defensive strategy in global investors’ portfolios.