Gold price forecasts in the upcoming period: from $4,800 to $5,000?

Context: Gold 2025 Ends an Exceptional Year

The yellow metal experienced unprecedented performance in 2025, breaking the $4,300 per ounce barrier in mid-October before falling back to levels around $4,000 by November, creating uncertainty among investors about the gold price outlook for 2026. This strong movement was not accidental but a natural result of increasing economic and geopolitical risks, along with a clear shift towards accommodative monetary policies in the world’s largest economies.

Key Factors Supporting Gold Demand

1. Institutional Demand Breaks Records

Total gold demand reached 1,249 tons in Q2 2025, a slight increase of 3% annually, but the total value surged to $132 billion with a 45% rise, reflecting unprecedented investor interest. Gold ETF flows (ETFs) showed massive inflows, pushing assets under management to $472 billion, with holdings rising to 3,838 tons, not far from the all-time peak of 3,929 tons.

This strong performance indicates that gold price forecasts for the upcoming period heavily depend on the continuation of this institutional flow, especially as about 28% of new investors are adding gold to their portfolios for the first time.

2. Central Bank Reserves: A Race for Precious Metals

Central bank purchases accelerated, adding 244 tons in Q1 2025 alone, a 24% increase over the five-year quarterly average. More importantly, 44% of global central banks now hold gold reserves, up from 37% in 2024, marking a fundamental strategic shift reflecting a desire to reduce reliance on the dollar.

China led this race with over 65 tons added, while Turkey increased its reserves to 600 tons. With this trend expected to continue into 2026, especially among emerging markets, it provides solid support for future gold price forecasts.

3. Global Supply: Chronic Tightness Supports Prices

Mine production reached 856 tons in Q1 2025, but this record was insufficient to bridge the widening gap with demand. Notably, recycling declined by 1%, as owners of gold jewelry preferred to hold onto their assets rather than sell, expecting prices to continue rising.

Extraction costs also increased to $1,470 per ounce, the highest in a decade, limiting expansion in production. This structural supply shortage is a crucial element supporting gold price expectations positively in the coming period.

Monetary Policies: The Main Driver of Expectations

US Interest Rate Cuts

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October 2025, bringing the range to 3.75-4.00%, with strong signals of further cuts before year-end. Markets anticipate a third 25 basis point cut in December, potentially bringing the rate down to around 3.50%.

This easing trend is likely to push interest rates to about 3.4% by the end of 2026, according to BlackRock estimates, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold and boosting its appeal.

Diverging Global Monetary Policies

While the US Federal Reserve moves towards easing, the European Central Bank continues a tightening policy, and the Bank of Japan maintains its accommodative stance. This divergence has created a global environment of uncertainty, prompting investors to seek safe havens, with gold being the prime choice.

Economic Pressures and Sovereign Debt

Global public debt has exceeded 100% of GDP, according to the IMF, raising real concerns about fiscal sustainability. Bloomberg Economics data shows that about 42% of major hedge funds increased their gold holdings in Q3 2025, benefiting from a weak dollar and declining real yields.

US 10-year bond yields fell from 4.6% in Q1 to 4.07% in November, while the dollar index declined by 7.64% since the start of the year.

Geopolitical Risks: An Additional Upside Catalyst

Trade conflicts between the US and China, along with tensions in the Middle East, increased gold demand by 7% year-over-year, according to Reuters. As fears about Taiwan and energy supplies intensified, gold surged to $4,300 in October, reaffirming its role as a hedge during crises.

Gold Price Forecast 2026: The Numbers from Major Banks

Main Predictions

HSBC expects gold to surge to $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, with an annual average of $4,600.

Bank of America also raised its forecast to $5,000, viewing it as a potential peak, with an average of $4,400, but warned of a possible short-term correction.

Goldman Sachs adjusted its forecast to $4,900, citing strong ETF inflows and continued central bank purchases.

J.P. Morgan projected gold reaching around $5,055 by mid-2026.

Consensus Range

Most major analysts agree on a $4,800 to $5,000 potential peak, with an average annual range between $4,200 and $4,800 for 2026.

Gold Price in Local Currencies: Middle East

Egypt

According to CoinCodex forecasts, the gold price could reach approximately 522,580 Egyptian pounds per ounce in 2026, an increase of about 158.46% over current prices.

Saudi Arabia and UAE

If gold hits $5,000 per ounce as most analysts predict, this translates to:

• About 18,750 to 19,000 SAR (at an exchange rate of 3.75-3.80 SAR per dollar)
• About 18,375 to 19,000 AED (at the same exchange rate)

Analyst Warnings: Alternative Scenario

Despite optimism, HSBC warned of a potential downward correction that could push gold to $4,200 in the second half of 2026 when taking profits, but excluded a drop below $3,800 unless a major economic shock occurs.

Goldman Sachs also indicated that sustained levels above $4,800 could test the market’s “price credibility,” especially with weak industrial demand.

However, J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank agreed that gold has entered a new price range that is difficult to break downward, thanks to a strategic shift in investor perception of it as a long-term asset.

Technical Outlook for Early 2026

Gold closed trading on November 21, 2025, at $4,065 per ounce, maintaining a major short-term upward trend line around $4,050.

The $4,000 level forms a critical support point; a clear daily close below this could target the $3,800 (50% Fibonacci retracement) zone.

On the upside, $4,200 represents the first strong resistance, with a break above opening the way toward $4,400 and then $4,680.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains at 50 (completely neutral), while the MACD stays above zero, confirming the overall bullish trend. The technical outlook suggests sideways trading between $4,000 and $4,220 in the near term, with the broader picture remaining positive.

Summary: What After 2025?

Future gold price forecasts are pivotal in determining the trajectory of safe-haven assets globally. As the monetary tightening cycle nears its end and the global economy enters a slowdown phase, the market will experience a tug-of-war between profit-taking and new central bank buying waves.

If real yields continue to decline and the dollar remains weak, gold is poised to reach new historic highs approaching $5,000. Conversely, if inflation eases and market confidence returns, the metal may enter a prolonged stabilization phase.