20-Year Gold Price Trend and Market Analysis for the First Half of 2025

Looking at the gold price chart over the past 20 years, gold has steadily strengthened its position as an inflation hedge and a safe-haven asset. In particular, the current surge from 2024 into 2025 is noteworthy even in a historical context. As of July, domestic gold prices reached 635,000 won per (3.75g), up approximately 43% compared to the same period last year, and international market prices are around $3,337 per ounce, representing a 27% increase since the beginning of the year and a 39% increase compared to one year ago.

Structural Changes Driving Gold Demand

Reorganization of the International Monetary System

Recently, several countries have been moving to reduce their dependence on the dollar in international trade and finance transactions. China is actively promoting the internationalization of the yuan, while countries under sanctions such as Russia and Iran are increasing their gold holdings as an alternative to dollar assets. This shift toward a decentralized monetary system enhances the strategic value of gold and leads to increased demand from central banks for gold purchases.

Deepening Geopolitical Instability

Global uncertainties are intensifying due to trade conflicts between the US and China, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and rising tensions in the Middle East. These factors continue to boost demand for gold, a classic safe-haven asset. Historically, during the 2008 financial crisis, the 2011 European debt crisis, and the 2020 pandemic, gold prices surged significantly.

Monetary Policy Easing Due to Economic Weakness

Major developed countries are lowering interest rates in response to economic slowdown. When interest rates fall, the attractiveness of interest-bearing assets diminishes, while gold, which does not pay interest but preserves value, becomes more appealing. Additionally, rate cuts are often signals of economic weakness, prompting investors to shift funds from risk assets to gold.

Current Status: Price Trajectory up to May

According to the Korea Gold Exchange chart, gold prices have steadily risen from last year through May. Since May, the pace of increase has somewhat slowed, but no significant downward signals have been observed yet. International gold prices show a similar pattern, indicating a close correlation between domestic and global gold markets.

Gold Price Outlook for the Second Half of 2025

Bullish Scenario

Most financial institutions have a positive outlook. JP Morgan has set a year-end target of $3,675 per ounce, which is plausible considering the current price already exceeds $3,300. The initial forecasts from banks and refiners compiled by the Financial Times, averaging $2,795, have already been surpassed. Goldman Sachs, Citi Group, and others also projected prices in the $3,000 range, which has now been realized.

Bearish Scenario and Risk Factors

Some institutions maintain a more conservative view. Barclays and Macquarie have suggested a correction to around $2,500 per ounce by year-end, but this would require about a 25% decline from current levels, which is considered unlikely. However, technical adjustments in the second half of 2025 cannot be completely ruled out, so risk management is essential when investing.

Conclusion: Managing Volatility within a Long-Term Uptrend

Combining long-term charts over 20 years with recent data, gold is in a phase of structural demand growth. Geopolitical risks, changes in monetary policy, and economic uncertainties are interacting in complex ways, and these are viewed as medium-term trends rather than short-term phenomena.

While the potential for further price increases in 2025 remains high, technical corrections may occur, so profit-taking and position management are necessary. Especially during periods of increased volatility, it is crucial to approach investments strategically in line with your goals and risk tolerance.