Will gold really reach $4,000? The breaking of psychological levels and the subsequent signals

The phenomenon that occurred last October has completely transformed the gold market. The precious metal not only broke through the 4,000-dollar per ounce threshold that many analysts believed would serve as a strong resistance, but also reached 4,181 dollars per ounce on October 20, 2025.

For long-term gold investors, this is the moment they have been waiting for. But for those still interested or hesitant, the question naturally arises: Will gold truly reach 4,000 dollars? And if it does, can it go higher?

Numbers Speak Louder Than Words: Gold Worldwide vs. the Thai Market

The truth can be learned from the volume. In just 7 months of 2025, gold prices surged from 3,000 dollars to 4,000 dollars, faster than the move from 2,000 to 3,000 dollars, which took 14 months. In early 2025, gold increased by over 66% without slowing down. This signals that the buying momentum is not just general interest but a massive influx of funds from institutional players.

In Thailand, 96.5% gold bars have surged past 62,000 Baht. The previously set target of 55,000 Baht has become history. Experts have to reset their outlook after witnessing movements this year that exceed previous expectations.

I See the Trend from a Different Window: Wall Street and Global Institutional Perspectives

It is no coincidence that major financial institutions have raised their forecasts after observing market behavior. Goldman Sachs increased its target from 4,300 dollars to 4,900 dollars per ounce for the end of 2026. Analyst Lina Thomas states that the driving force comes from the strong demand from central banks and their belief in gold as collateral.

UBS shares a similar view. An executive pointed out that the phenomenon of central banks accumulating gold is unprecedented. In 2025 alone, central banks bought a net total of 1,200 tons of gold. Such behavior reflects a disconnection from reliance solely on the dollar.

To simplify the equation: if Goldman Sachs is correct, Thai gold prices could reach 75,000-80,000 Baht in 2026. This is not just speculation but a reflection of reality based on the actions of central institutions worldwide.

The Engines Driving the Gold Machine: 4 Unmissable Forces

Force One: Trade Conflicts Between Superpowers

Recent signals from Washington and Beijing indicate that the trade war is not just rhetoric but escalating into a significant conflict. The president announced plans for a 100% import tariff on many Chinese goods. This tension poses systemic risks to the global economy, prompting investors to seek safety by buying gold.

Force Two: Easing of Interest Rate Policies

The Fed has begun a cycle of lowering interest rates, reducing by 0.25% in September 2025, with expectations of further cuts. As rates fall, the dollar weakens, and gold—an asset with no yield—becomes more attractive. The inverse relationship between gold and interest rates remains a market rule.

Force Three: Central Bank Accumulation

This is the core of the story. Central banks from emerging and developed countries have continuously purchased over 1,000 tons of gold annually for three consecutive years. Global gold reserves stand at 36,699 tons, the highest in decades. After the U.S. froze Russian assets in 2022, many countries became uneasy about over-reliance on the dollar. Gold has thus become a symbol of security.

Force Four: New Currency Initiatives from BRICS

The BRICS countries are drafting a gold-backed digital currency. This approach challenges the dollar-dominated financial power structure. If launched, the demand for gold will surge dramatically to support this new currency.

Serious Issue: Price Vulnerabilities

While the bullish outlook is clear, there are factors that could quickly extinguish hope.

If the U.S. and China sit down to negotiate tariffs and reach an agreement, trade tensions could ease, reducing the need for investors to flock to gold. Additionally, after an 8-week rapid price increase, investors’ profit-taking desire may emerge. If the U.S. economy recovers and the dollar strengthens, gold could face correction.

A Thousand Words in a Chart Can Be Summed Up with 4 Lines

Looking at the current chart, the RSI of gold indicates overbought conditions (Overbought). However, in a strong uptrend, such conditions may allow prices to stay elevated for a longer period.

The Shooting Star candlestick pattern appears on the chart. Generally, this signals a short-term reversal, but given the strong primary trend, the correction is likely just a temporary pause.

The 3-phase trend theory suggests the market is still in the Public Participation phase, where prices begin to reverse, attracting a diverse group of buyers. This is when investors are full of confidence.

How to Trade to Maximize Opportunities

Strategy for entering “Buy on Dips”

Prices have risen too quickly; a pullback is inevitable. Wait for the price to drop to the first support around 3,859 dollars (October start) or the support at 3,782 dollars, then buy. Set a stop-loss below the key support at 3,750 dollars. The target is the previous high or the next resistance at 4,100 dollars.

“Testing the Ground” Strategy

Since the price just broke above 4,000 dollars, it may retrace to test the new support level. Wait for the price to bounce back from the 3,980-4,000 dollar support zone with high trading volume, then buy.

“Fibonacci as a Trading Aid” Strategy

Draw Fibonacci retracement from the low (around 3,500 dollars) to the high (4,059 dollars). Look for buy signals at the 38.2% or 61.8% levels when the price allows a correction.

Summary: Gold Has Reached 4,000 Dollars—What Next?

The reality is that gold has not only broken through 4,000 dollars but also has the potential to surge to 4,900 dollars if signals from major financial institutions are true.

But the key word is “if.” The market can reverse if trade conflicts resolve or if the Fed raises interest rates again. The smart investor’s initial approach is to catch the right timing, avoid rushing in, and be prepared for possible volatility along the way. The overall trend remains bullish.