Gold approaches $5000.. Will the rise continue until 2026?

This year, gold experienced an unprecedented upward movement, breaking the $4,300 per ounce barrier in mid-October before correcting to levels around $4,000 in November. This sharp rise sparked widespread debate among analysts: Will gold continue toward $5,000 in 2026? And what is driving this buying momentum?

Data indicates that the average gold price in 2025 reached $3,455 per ounce, significantly higher than previous years. But more important than the numbers are the reasons behind this rise.

Why is gold rising now?

1. Central banks are buying aggressively

A fundamental shift has occurred in central bank policies worldwide. 44% of central banks added gold reserves in 2025 (compared to 37% in 2024), reflecting a growing desire to build financial shields away from the US dollar.

China alone added over 65 tons in the first half of the year, continuing this purchase for the 22nd consecutive month. Analysts expect that this trend will remain the main factor supporting demand until the end of 2026.

2. Investors seek safety

Bloomberg data shows that 28% of new investors added gold to their portfolios for the first time, driven by concerns over rising sovereign debt and persistent inflation. Gold ETFs (ETFs) attracted record inflows, pushing managed assets to $472 billion and holdings over 3,838 tons.

3. Limited supply and peak demand

Mines produced 856 tons in Q1 2025, but this was not enough to meet the increasing demand. In fact, recycled gold decreased by 1% as owners prefer to hold onto it, expecting further price increases.

Mining costs rose to $1,470 per ounce, the highest in a decade, limiting producers’ ability to expand output quickly.

4. The dollar weakens and interest rates fall

The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates twice since December 2024, and markets are pricing in an additional 25 basis points cut at the December meeting. This results in lower real yields on bonds, making gold more attractive.

The dollar index has fallen 7.64% from its peak at the start of the year, increasing gold’s value for foreign investors.

5. Geopolitical tensions persist

Uncertainty around Taiwan tensions and escalating trade conflicts added another 7% to demand in 2025. Investors are rushing toward safe havens, with gold always being the first choice.

Major analysts’ forecasts for 2026

Consensus among investment banks is strong and optimistic:

HSBC Bank: expects gold to reach $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, with an annual average of $4,600.

Bank of America: also raised its forecast to $5,000 as a potential peak, with an average of $4,400 for the year.

Goldman Sachs: revised its forecast to $4,900 based on strong inflows into gold funds and ongoing institutional demand.

J.P. Morgan: predicted $5,055 by mid-2026, confirming that the market has already broken through expected resistance levels.

Most agreed range: between $4,800 and $5,000 as a peak, with an average annual price between $4,200 and $4,800.

Can gold decline in 2026?

Despite optimism, negative scenarios should not be ignored:

HSBC warns of a possible correction toward $4,200 in the second half of 2026 if investors start taking profits. However, a sharp fall below $3,800 is unlikely unless a major economic shock occurs.

Goldman Sachs cautions that sustained prices above $4,800 could test price credibility, especially with weak industrial demand.

But most analysts agree that gold has entered a “new price zone” that is difficult to break downward, thanks to the strategic shift among investors who now see it as a long-term asset rather than just a speculative tool.

What does technical analysis indicate?

The closing on Friday, November 21, was at $4,065.01, after touching a peak of $4,381 on October 20.

The price broke a rising channel that supported it but remains attached to a key trendline connecting higher lows around $4,050. Support at $4,000 is now critical.

Momentum indicators (RSI) have stabilized at 50, indicating a completely neutral market, with no clear bias. The MACD remains above zero, confirming that the overall trend remains bullish in the long term.

The near-term movement is expected to trade between $4,000 and $4,220, with the overall outlook remaining positive as long as the price stays above the main trendline.

Gold outlook in the Middle East

In Egypt: CoinCodex forecasts suggest gold could reach approximately 522,580 Egyptian pounds per ounce, representing a 158% increase over current prices.

In Saudi Arabia: If gold hits $5,000 (optimistic scenario), this could translate to about 18,750 to 19,000 SAR at a fixed exchange rate.

In the UAE: The same scenario might give an estimate of around 18,375 to 19,000 AED.

However, it’s important to remember that these forecasts are relative and depend on assumptions such as stable exchange rates and continued global demand.

Summary: What should you do now?

2026 will witness a battle between two forces: investors looking to take profits, and central banks and institutions aiming to buy more. If real yields continue to decline and the dollar weakens, gold is poised to jump to levels of $5,000 or higher.

But if market confidence returns and inflation drops sharply, the metal could enter a long-term stabilization phase.

The actual gold price forecasts for 2026 will depend more on global monetary policies and geopolitical developments than any other factor. Continuous monitoring of economic data and global news will be key to understanding upcoming movements.