Will gold go down further? The price of $4,000 is not the end point if you understand the real situation.

Gold has broken through the psychological $4,000 level and the question everyone is asking is, “Will gold go down again?” For those holding gold, they might now smile with confidence, but for those still hesitant and afraid of hitting the peak, this article will provide a clear answer.

Looking back at the current situation, gold prices haven’t stopped at just $4,000 per ounce. There is still a possibility of further upward movement. Recently, leading global financial institutions have unanimously forecasted that gold will go down again? It will go down, but before that, it might go much higher.

Reasons Why Gold Has Risen Nearly 7 Weeks Without Pause

If we talk about gold movements this year, it’s an unprecedented scene. Starting from $3,000 to $4,000 in just 7 months, while the move from $2,000 to $3,000 took 14 months.

The increase in numbers is the clearest indicator: Gold prices rose 66% in the first half of 2025 and hit a new record 40 times. In Thailand, 96.5% gold bars broke through 62,000 THB per baht, exceeding the original analyst target of 55,000 THB.

The main driving forces come from four clear factors:

First: Trade War Tensions Escalate
The US-China trade tensions are not new, but now they have reached a new level. When the president announced a 100% tariff on Chinese imports, global economic uncertainty increased, and investors turned to embrace gold as the “ultimate safe asset.”

Second: Interest Rates Drop
The US Federal Reserve has cut interest rates, and further cuts are expected in October and December. Lower interest rates weaken the dollar, making gold more attractive. Usually, gold moves inversely to real interest rates: lower rates = more investor interest in gold.

Third: Central Banks Worldwide Continue Buying Gold
This is the most significant and sustainable factor. Central banks, especially from emerging markets, have been net buyers of over 1,000 tons annually for three consecutive years. Most of this is driven by the “de-dollarization” (De-dollarization), which intensified after Russia’s gold reserves were frozen.

Fourth: BRICS Group Moving Toward a New Currency
Rumors suggest that BRICS is preparing to launch a digital currency backed by gold. This is a serious challenge to the dollar, so gold is gaining momentum.

Wall Street’s Real Institutions Say Will Gold Drop Again?

Goldman Sachs targets $4,900 by the end of 2026, up from the previous $4,300. Analyst Lina Thomas states that the momentum comes from continued demand from central banks and inflows into gold ETFs, which have never stopped.

UBS initially expected gold to reach $3,500 by December 2026, but now they have revised upward, noting that central bank gold accumulation shows no signs of slowing.

In Thailand, based on the $4,900 target, gold prices could reach 75,000-80,000 THB per baht by 2026.

Therefore, the answer to “Will gold go down again?” is It will go down, but not soon because before that, it might go higher.

Caution: When Will Gold Truly Turn Down?

However, not everything will go as expected. The analysis team is actively monitoring several factors that could suddenly halt the rally:

If US-China negotiations end
Trade tensions ease, gold will lose its primary reason for appreciation, and prices could quickly reverse downward.

Profit-taking surge
After nearly 8 weeks of strong gains, investors might start selling to lock in profits. If technical signals show overbought conditions, the risk of a correction increases.

Dollar strengthening
If the US economy performs better than expected and the Fed delays rate cuts, the dollar will strengthen, making gold more expensive for other currency holders, reducing demand.

Persistent inflation
If interest rates remain high, gold, which offers no yield, will become less attractive.

If You Want to Buy Now, Use This Strategy

Strategy 1: Buy on dips (Buy the Dip)
Gold is in a strong uptrend but has risen rapidly, so a correction is possible. Wait for the price to fall to around $3,859 or $3,782 before entering, with a stop-loss below $3,750.

Strategy 2: Test the breakout (Breakout Retest)
Buy when the price retraces to test resistance at $3,980–$4,000. If it bounces back strongly, the upward momentum can continue.

Strategy 3: Use Fibonacci levels
Draw from $3,500 to $4,059. Look for buy signals at 38.2% or 61.8%, common reversal points.

Summary: Will Gold Go Down Again? Rise First, Fall Later

From the perspective of global financial institutions, there is still room for gold to rise to $4,900. But that doesn’t mean there won’t be a short-term correction. Currently, gold is in a “strong but risky” state.

If you are hesitant to buy gold now, wait for a correction. No need to rush to the peak. For those holding gold, it’s better to hold and wait for higher levels. If you decide to invest again, choose entry points based on reason, with a plan and a clear stop-loss.

Most importantly, remember that gold will go down again? It will, but not right now.