2025 Gold Price Increase Rate Analysis: International Gold Price Trends and Future Outlook

Current Status of International Gold Prices

The price of gold in 2025 continues its upward trend from last year. As of July 5th, the international gold price is approximately $3,337 per ounce, representing a 27% increase since the beginning of the year and a 39% increase compared to one year ago. Meanwhile, domestic gold prices are at 635,000 won per don (a traditional Korean weight unit), recording an approximately 43% increase over the same period. This indicates a long-term upward trend rather than a simple short-term fluctuation. International gold prices showed a sharp rise until May but have since somewhat slowed down. However, no clear signs of decline have been observed yet.

Key Variables Influencing International Gold Prices

Weak US dollar trend and multipolarization movement

Movements to reduce the influence of the US dollar in global trade and financial systems are spreading worldwide. China is working to strengthen the international status of the yuan, expanding yuan settlements in trade with various countries and lowering dollar dependence through currency swap agreements. India is also making efforts to expand the use of the rupee.

Countries under US sanctions are in a similar position. They aim to increase economic independence by avoiding dollar transactions and increasing gold holdings. These trends of dollar weakening and rising gold demand are major factors driving the increase in international gold prices.

Geopolitical instability and increased safe-haven asset preference

Gold has traditionally been a preferred safe-haven asset during economic crises(safe-haven asset). During financial crises such as the 2008 global financial crisis, the 2011 European debt crisis, and the 2020 pandemic, gold prices surged to record levels.

Currently, ongoing US-China trade tensions, the Ukraine situation, and Middle East conflicts continue to stimulate investor risk-avoidance psychology. As economic uncertainty increases, investors tend to buy gold as a means of asset protection, which further promotes the rise in international gold prices.

Weak signals in developed economies

Concerns about inflationary pressures in the US and slowing growth momentum in Europe persist. These economic weakness signals contribute to gold price increases in two ways: first, increasing demand for gold as an inflation hedge; second, the likelihood of central banks lowering interest rates during economic downturns, which raises the relative value of gold.

Central bank interest rate cuts

Interest rate cuts tend to move in the opposite direction of gold prices. When interest rates fall, the profitability of interest-bearing assets like bank deposits and bonds decreases, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold. Additionally, rate cuts serve as signals of economic weakness, prompting capital to move into safe assets.

The case of the US Federal Reserve’s 50 basis point rate cut in September last year, which caused a sharp rise in gold prices, illustrates this well. The possibility of further rate cuts is expected to continue acting as a factor supporting the rise in international gold prices.

Outlook and Market Evaluation for 2025 Gold Prices

Diverging expert opinions

Most financial experts are optimistic about gold prices in 2025. JP Morgan’s report on July 1st set a year-end target of $3,675 per ounce, implying an additional 10% increase from the current $3,337 level. The initial forecast of $2,795 at the beginning of the year has already been significantly surpassed.

Goldman Sachs and Citi Group’s early target of $3,000 per ounce has already been achieved, indicating that the market is moving ahead of expert expectations.

On the other hand, Barclays and Macquarie forecast a correction to around $2,500 per ounce by the end of the year. This is a bearish scenario implying about a 25% decline from current levels, which is considered less likely.

Movement of international gold prices in the second half of 2025

Based on comprehensive analysis, gold prices are likely to remain strong throughout 2025. However, given the steep rise in the first half of the year, a consolidation phase may occur in the second half. It is important to regularly monitor international gold price trends and respond to variable changes with a prudent investment approach.

Investment Considerations

If you are planning to invest in gold, keep the following in mind: First, choosing the right timing to buy within the currently high international gold price levels is crucial. Second, continuously monitor geopolitical variables and changes in interest rate policies. Third, proper risk management through asset allocation adjustments within your portfolio is essential.