Gold analysis in 2025: How did prices reach new all-time highs?

Exceptional Performance of Gold Introduction

The gold market over the past five decades has not experienced performance like the current record levels in 2025. Since the beginning of this year, the precious metal has experienced strong upward trajectories, having increased by over 47% since January. This sharp rise is not coincidental but reflects a convergence of economic and geopolitical factors creating ideal conditions to attract capital toward this traditional safe haven.

Technical Outlook: Reading Gold Charts

When examining price charts, it appears that gold began its strong upward movement in mid-2024, continuing this trend steadily through the first nine months of 2025. Data from technical analysis platforms indicate that the metal:

• Broke through key resistance levels at $3,700 and $3,800 per ounce
• Currently faces strong resistance at $4,050, which coincides with the upper band of the Bollinger Bands
• Maintains important support levels at $3,900, $3,819, and $3,700

The MACD momentum indicator currently shows positive signals, with the MACD line still above the signal line, although the histogram has begun to show signs of buying slowdown, potentially signaling an upcoming correction that could extend down to levels around $3,820.

Fundamental Drivers of the Rise

Trade Policies and Tariffs

At the start of the year, a new US administration imposed broad tariffs on imports from various countries. These steps raised fears in global markets of supply chain disruptions, prompting investors to seek safe-haven instruments. Gold benefited directly from these concerns, especially with escalating threats of an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods.

Changes in US Interest Rate Policy

The US Federal Reserve faced a real dilemma: on one hand, labor market indicators and economic activity suggested relative weakness justifying rate cuts. On the other hand, inflation fears persisted. On September 17, the Fed decided to cut rates from 4.5% to 4.25%, a move that contributed to a strong surge in gold by 22.9% in September alone.

Geopolitical Tensions and Regional Conflicts

Military confrontations between Israel and Iran heightened concerns over the security of maritime trade routes, especially the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. These developments increased demand for gold as a hedge against external shocks, as investors see it as a safe haven during times of instability.

US Government Shutdown

The partial US government shutdown that began on October 1 added another layer of uncertainty, halting the release of US economic data and disrupting key government activities, creating ambiguity about the true health of the US economy.

Role of Institutions and Central Banks

One of the main drivers of gold’s rise lies in the behavior of institutional buyers:

• Gold ETFs increased holdings by 41%, reaching $383 billion
• Trading volumes hit record levels of $329 billion daily during the first half of the year
• Central banks continued systematic purchases to bolster their gold reserves

These movements reflect a strong institutional view that gold is a necessary hedge in an unstable economic environment.

Monitoring Global Inflation

Global inflation continues to pressure monetary policy decisions. IMF forecasts indicate that global inflation may stabilize around 4.2% in 2025, higher than historical averages (2-3%). In the US, inflation rates have returned to around 2.9% annually, complicating the Federal Reserve’s balancing act between avoiding recession and controlling prices.

Expected Scenarios for the Coming Months

Scenario One: Relative Stability

If economic and geopolitical conditions remain at current levels, gold may move sideways within a narrow range between $3,500 and $3,600, yielding an annual return close to 34%.

Scenario Two: Escalation (Most Likely)

This scenario considers the possibility of stagflation (economic stagnation with persistent inflation), as warned by the Fed chairman himself. In its moderate form, gold could end the year around $4,100 (return of 56%), while in a more extreme case, it could reach $4,400.

Technical Outlook for Q4

Most Likely Scenario (:

• October: Technical correction toward $3,820–$3,900
• November: Rebound with momentum toward $3,900–$4,100
• December: Continued ascent toward $4,100–$4,200

Less Likely Scenario ): If the $3,820 level breaks, a deeper correction toward $3,700 may occur, but the overall trend remains bullish, albeit at a slower pace.

Strategies for Dealing with the Gold Market

( Long-term: Value Preservation

This approach aims to benefit from gold’s strong performance over a horizon exceeding one year. Investors in this category seek hedges against inflation and currency volatility. Central banks and financial institutions are key players here, holding gold as a strategic component in their portfolios.

) Short-term: Capitalizing on Movements

This strategy relies on frequent buying and selling over short periods. It requires daily monitoring of economic data, geopolitical news, and technical indicators. Success depends on mastery of technical and fundamental analysis tools.

Investment Options Without Physical Ownership

Investors have many options beyond purchasing physical gold:

• Gold ETFs ###ETFs###
• Shares of mining and exploration companies
• Other derivative instruments providing exposure to price movements

Portfolio Diversification Recommendations

Investment experts advise that gold should constitute at least 15-20% of the total investment portfolio. This level provides sufficient protection against unexpected shocks while maintaining growth opportunities through other assets.

Summary and Future Outlook

The gold market in 2025 reflects a unique convergence of multiple economic and geopolitical pressures. Data suggests that the metal could end the year around $4,100 in the baseline scenario. However, truly capitalizing on this opportunity requires a deep understanding of gold analysis tools, current market dynamics, and cautious risk management aligned with your personal risk tolerance.