Next January 2nd, the US Manufacturing PMI Final will be released. This data from S&P Global has traditionally been regarded by the market as a leading indicator of industry health, with the release scheduled for 22:45 on January 2, 2026.

What is the market consensus? Most analysts expect it to remain at 51.8, above the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction, indicating continued growth. At first glance, there seems to be no suspense, but the story behind this data is actually quite complex.

S&P Global conducts regular surveys of about 600 manufacturers, aggregating their perceptions on five aspects: new orders (the most weighted at 30%), output, employment, supplier delivery speeds, and inventory levels. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 indicates contraction. Once released, this data is final and not subject to revision, making it highly timely and valuable for reference.

Currently, the situation of US manufacturing is quite complicated. There are significant regional differences—although the Chicago PMI for December has rebounded, at 43.5 it still hovers in contraction territory, indicating that manufacturing in the Midwest remains sluggish. In contrast, Philadelphia’s new orders and shipments have rebounded into positive territory, with the employment index reaching its highest since May, showing regional resilience.

Looking ahead, US manufacturing has been contracting for nine consecutive months since March 2025. The main culprits include tariffs raising costs, global trade frictions suppressing imports and exports, and most sectors lagging except for a few bright spots like chips and civil aviation. Although the AI boom has pushed capital expenditure among the Big Four tech companies to an annual growth rate of 23%, these structural highlights are too small to significantly boost the overall manufacturing sector.

Therefore, the key question is: can the December PMI hold above 51.8? This directly reflects whether US manufacturing still has the capacity to continue its recovery amid the dual pressures of tariffs and structural divergence. Its impact on market sentiment should not be underestimated.