#2026年比特币行情展望 Bitcoin Breakout and Pullback Dual Trading Framework

Currently, the $BTC trend is diverging, mainly considering two probabilistic scenarios.

【Scenario 1: Direct Upward Breakout】

If the price can stay above $94,000 (judged by a 30-minute candlestick close), the subsequent target ranges between $95,000 and $97,500. However, the probability here is only about 40%, and the key factor is trading volume. Breakouts with low volume are prone to repeated reversals, so volume is the true signal.

For entry, try 30% position size. Once it rises by 1%, immediately move the stop-loss to the cost basis to lock in profits. If it rises another 2%, move the stop-loss to 1% in profit. To be safe, set a stop-loss below $93,000 if the price drops below $94,000.

【Scenario 2: Small Pullback for Accumulation】

This scenario has a higher probability, around 60%. The price is likely to fall back to the support zone between $91,500 and $92,000. Instead of chasing the high, it’s better to accumulate in batches—start with 30% position, keeping the remaining ammunition in reserve.

Once it stabilizes in this zone and shows signs of a bottom (such as formation of a bottom pattern or decreasing decline), you can increase to 60%. The initial target is to reach between $93,000 and $94,000 (the previous high). Set a stop-loss below $90,800 to give yourself some breathing room.

The key is not to be greedy; managing your position size is more important than guessing the correct direction.