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Global financial markets have just sent an undeniable signal—the Japanese bond market is experiencing intense turbulence.
What is the reason behind this? The 10-year Japanese government bond yield suddenly broke through 2.130%, reaching a new high not seen since February 1999. The daily increase was 1.5 basis points, a phenomenon that hasn't occurred in 25 years. This figure appears calm, but the signals it releases are extremely sharp: the potential shift in the Bank of Japan's policy stance may far exceed market expectations.
Why is this event worth paying attention to? Because Japan has long been the world's last "cheap funding pool." Over more than two decades of zero interest rate environment, it has attracted arbitrage traders worldwide. What does it mean if this pool begins to close rapidly?
First, the flow of global capital is facing a reshuffle. The pressure for yen appreciation is increasing, arbitrage positions are gradually being closed, and a large amount of capital may withdraw from emerging markets and high-risk assets. This could directly impact liquidity in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, XRP, and other digital assets.
Second, the cost structure of overseas investments is changing. If Japan truly moves away from zero interest rates, the global lending environment will adopt new pricing models, affecting mortgage rates, stock market valuations, and even risk premiums in the crypto market.
As the era of "cheap money" gradually comes to an end, your asset allocation needs to be reconsidered.