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By early 2026, the Federal Reserve will face shocks from more than one direction.
The Supreme Court's ruling on the President's removal powers directly challenges the legal boundaries of central bank independence. This is not just a theoretical risk but a signal that the institutional framework may be reshaped. Meanwhile, the issue of Powell's tenure has become fully politicized—decisions that should be based on economic data are now tools in a power struggle. The hawkish voices within the FOMC are growing louder, and the dissent behind the rate cut decision has surfaced openly.
Even more concerning is that the data itself has become unreliable. Indicators long relied upon by the Fed, such as CPI and non-farm employment, are no longer sufficient in the face of the AI productivity revolution. Central banks are like pilots flying without reliable maps; their traditional operational logic is being broken.
This situation, when transmitted to the crypto market, makes the logical chain very clear—
Once the credibility of the dollar wavers, the narrative of BTC as digital gold will be reinforced, and safe-haven funds will naturally flow in. If AI-driven unemployment panic truly erupts, the demand for decentralization will be reactivated, and projects like FIL and RNDR, which combine Web3 and AI, will see increased attention. Ultimately, if the market ends up in a liquidity glut, Meme coins like DOGE and PEPE will become the best outlets for market sentiment—community-driven, highly liquid, and free from fundamental constraints.
The core logic is actually this: the market is not just trading on interest rate levels, but on a deeper question—"Can the central bank still be trusted?" During the chaos, everyone retreats to safe assets, but in the long run, the expectation remains that liquidity will eventually flood the market.