Can the Australian dollar maintain its strength? Market expectations of central bank rate hikes in 2026 are the key.

2026-01-06 11:08:09

AUD/USD has shown impressive performance at the start of 2025, with a cumulative increase of 8.4% since the beginning of the year. The latest price is around 0.6706. This rally is not accidental but driven by multiple forces.

Diverging Central Bank Policies as the Main Driving Force

The current market consensus is that the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Federal Reserve are on different monetary policy paths. Signs of inflation rebounding in Australia, along with the December meeting minutes revealing a clear hawkish stance, have led investors to generally expect the RBA to start a rate hike cycle in 2026. In contrast, the Fed’s rate cuts are ongoing, with market expectations of two rate cuts in 2026. This policy divergence naturally supports the Australian dollar.

Commodity Price Rally Boosts the Australian Dollar

In addition to monetary policy factors, commodities such as gold, silver, and copper have recently surged to historic highs, which is undoubtedly positive for Australia as a major resource exporter. Rising commodity prices suggest a more optimistic economic outlook for Australia, further strengthening the AUD.

What Do Institutions Say About the AUD Outlook?

Deutsche Bank’s analysis suggests that the interest rate differential advantage of the AUD over other G10 currencies will continue to widen. The bank forecasts AUD/USD to reach 0.69 by Q2 2026, with potential to rise to 0.71 by year-end.

The National Australia Bank (NAB) offers a more optimistic outlook. The bank expects the RBA to raise rates twice in 2026, and based on this, AUD/USD could break through 0.71 in Q2 2026, with a chance to reach 0.72 in Q3.

Two Key Dates Investors Should Not Ignore

Whether the AUD can maintain its strength depends critically on the upcoming economic data releases. On January 28, Australia will publish Q4 CPI data, and on February 3, the RBA will announce its latest interest rate decision. The results of these two events will directly influence market expectations of RBA rate hikes and determine whether the current momentum of the AUD can be sustained.

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