Rumors of 600,000 BTC in Venezuela spark heated discussion; why are on-chain analysis agencies questioning it?

【Blockchain Rhythm】 Rumors about the Venezuelan government holding Bitcoin have recently resurfaced. Investigative journalist Bradley Hope claims that the country may have quietly exchanged gold for BTC over the past several years, possibly accumulating around 600,000 coins, worth approximately $60 billion. Once this figure surfaced, the entire community was shocked.

But here’s a key question: where do these numbers come from? It’s not something revealed by on-chain data. Hope’s estimate is mainly based on a mathematical reverse calculation from Venezuela’s gold sales volume since 2018. In other words, it’s a hypothesis, not definitive proof.

Frank Weert, co-founder of Whale Alert, bluntly states — it’s almost impossible to hold such a large amount of Bitcoin completely hidden from blockchain analysis. His stance is clear: very solid evidence is needed to convince people. Currently, mainstream analysis firms like Arkham, Chainalysis, and Elliptic have not found any large Bitcoin wallets directly linked to the government.

Interestingly, Venezuela is actively embracing cryptocurrencies. The national digital currency Petro was launched long ago, and the country is also using crypto for energy trading and cross-border payments. Driven by hyperinflation of the local currency, the demand for cryptocurrencies among the public is very high — by 2025, Venezuela ranks among the top 20 in global crypto adoption.

The truth might be: even if Venezuela has accumulated a large amount of Bitcoin, it’s very likely they have thoroughly concealed it through mixers, cross-chain operations, and offshore OTC trades. The authorities have never transparently disclosed this, and on-chain evidence remains elusive. This uncertainty itself has become a focal point of ongoing discussions in the community.