2025 Today's Gold Price Outlook: Real-Time International and Domestic Price Analysis

Key Outlook on Gold Price Rise in 2025

Most financial experts predict that gold prices will continue to stay strong this year. According to a survey by the Financial Times at the beginning of the year, prices were expected to reach $2,795 per ounce by the end of the year, but currently, they have surpassed $3,337 per ounce. JP Morgan has revised its target price upward to $3,675 per ounce in its latest report, which is considered a highly realistic scenario.

As more than half of 2025 has already passed and the initial estimates have been significantly exceeded, the remaining price movements are attracting attention. However, some analysts mention the possibility of a correction in the second half, so cautious position management is necessary.

Today’s Gold Price and Recent Trends

Domestic Gold Price (As of July 5): 635,000 KRW per don (unit), up approximately 43% from 443,000 KRW a year ago. The Korea Gold Exchange chart shows a strong upward trend until May, with some stabilization since then.

International Gold Price (As of July 5): estimated at about $3,337 per ounce, up 27% from the beginning of the year and 39% from a year ago. The early stages of Q3 show a very strong upward momentum.

Since domestic and international gold prices are closely correlated, understanding the flow of the international gold market is essential to grasp its impact on domestic prices.

Variables Driving Gold Prices

Reshaping the International Currency System: De-dollarization Trend

Several countries are moving to reduce their dependence on the dollar in international trade. China is promoting the internationalization of the yuan, and India is expanding the use of the rupee. Especially, countries under US sanctions are increasingly using gold and other currencies instead of the dollar.

This de-dollarization trend leads to a weaker dollar and increased demand for gold, which are key structural factors driving gold price increases.

Global Political Instability and Safe-Haven Asset Preference

Gold has traditionally been a safe-haven asset during economic crises or political instability. Examples include the sharp rise in gold prices during the 2008 financial crisis, the 2011 European debt crisis, and the 2020 pandemic.

Currently, global risk factors such as US-China trade tensions, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and Middle Eastern tensions are prevalent, sustaining investor demand for gold.

Concerns Over Economic Weakness in Developed Countries

There are ongoing concerns about inflation in the US and weakening growth momentum in Europe. As economic uncertainty increases, demand for safe assets like gold tends to rise repeatedly.

Relationship Between Interest Rate Cuts and Gold Demand

When interest rates are cut, yields on deposits and bonds decrease, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold. Additionally, rate cuts are interpreted as signals of economic slowdown, prompting investors to shift funds into safe assets.

As seen after the Fed’s 50bp rate cut in September last year, further rate reductions could push gold prices even higher.

Gold Price Scenarios for the Remaining Period in 2025

Bullish Scenario (High probability): Achieving JP Morgan’s target of $3,675. A 10% additional increase from current levels is feasible.

Correction Scenario (Low probability): A decline to around $2,500 suggested by some institutions. A correction of over 25% from current prices would be needed, but the likelihood is low.

High Volatility Scenario (Medium probability): Rebound after technical correction in the second half. Investors should prepare risk management strategies for this volatility.

Points Investors Should Focus On

While the upward trend in gold prices is clear, the possibility of increased volatility in the second half should also be recognized. It is wise to establish position and profit/loss management plans in advance and monitor key events such as international geopolitical news and Fed interest rate decisions.

Today’s gold prices could lead to the next investment opportunity, so thorough information gathering and cautious decision-making are essential at this point.