【BTC Technical Analysis: Key Range Battles Amid Multi-Timeframe Divergence】

Currently, BTC quotes at 95228, and the market is exhibiting a typical multi-timeframe divergence pattern. Short-term charts show the price consolidating weakly near a key support zone, while long-term charts maintain a relatively intact upward relay structure. This contradictory state is pushing the price toward a critical window for a directional decision.

In-depth Technical Structure Analysis

Short-term (1-4 hour level): Weak oscillation within Bollinger Bands
The price is currently trading below the middle band (95284) of the Bollinger Bands, in a weak zone. The MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover below the zero line—DIF (-75.0) and DEA (-97.1) remain in negative territory, but the green histogram (22.1) is beginning to expand, indicating diminishing downward momentum. RSI (44.2) is in the weak zone but not oversold, leaving room for a short-term rebound. The price has formed a new oscillation box within the 94200-96400 range.

Long-term (Daily level): Correction within an uptrend
Despite recent adjustments, the price remains above key moving averages. The middle band of Bollinger Bands (95797) acts as recent resistance, while the lower band (94303) and previous support levels form a strong support zone. MACD shows a death cross at high levels, but the DIF value (532.9) remains high, indicating the medium- to long-term upward trend is still intact. RSI (53.6) stays in a neutral strong zone, leaving room for future movement. The overall structure is a normal retracement since the low point at 85350.

Multiple Validations of Key Levels

Upper Resistance Zones

· First Resistance: 95797-95800 (Bollinger middle band and psychological barrier)
· Second Resistance: 96400-96700 (former high turned resistance zone)
· Strong Resistance: 97300-97941 (cluster of previous highs)

Lower Support Zones

· First Support: 94800-95000 (recent lows and psychological barrier)
· Second Support: 94300-94500 (Bollinger lower band and trendline resonance zone)
· Strong Support: 92500-93500 (previously dense trading platform)

Bull-Bear Battle Path Projection

Path One (Probability 55%): Rebound then correction
Price tests resistance at 95700-96000, completing a technical rebound. However, encountering resistance in this zone causes a pullback, testing support at 94800-95000 again. Ultimately, a new oscillation center forms within 94300-95800, awaiting fundamental or news catalysts to determine the direction.

Path Two (Probability 45%): Direct upward breakthrough
Price gains strong support around 95000-95300, with volume increasing to break through 95800 resistance. It then rapidly rises to test 96400-96700, possibly challenging the previous high. This scenario requires significant volume expansion and sustained buying pressure.

Refined Trading Strategies

Range Oscillation Strategy (Applicable if 94800-95800 remains unbroken)

· Short Opportunity: When the price rebounds to 95600-95800 and shows a 15-minute divergence signal, consider a small short position with a stop loss at 96100, targeting 95200→94800.
· Long Opportunity: When the price falls back to 94800-95000 and shows a 1-hour stabilization signal, consider partial long positions with a stop loss at 94500, targeting 95500→95800.
· Position Size: Do not risk more than 1.5% of capital per trade; 2-3 trades within the range are feasible.

Breakout Follow-up Strategies

· Upward Breakout: When volume breaks above 96000 and sustains for 2 hours, consider chasing longs with a stop at 95600, targeting 96500→97300.
· Downward Breakdown: When volume drops below 94700 and cannot recover within 1 hour, consider shorting with a stop at 95100, targeting 94300→93800.
· Position Size: 2-3% initially upon breakout, increasing to 5% after confirmation.

Risk Alerts and Key Observation Points

1. On-chain Data: Monitor net inflow and outflow on exchanges; large transfers often signal directional shifts.
2. Correlated Markets: US stock performance and the US dollar index will continue to influence crypto market risk appetite.
3. Time Window: Market liquidity changes around weekends may amplify volatility.
4. Sentiment Indicators: The Fear & Greed Index has retreated from high levels; watch for entry into value investment zones.

Current Optimal Strategy Summary
Recommend adopting a dual approach of “buying the dip and following through on breakouts.” Before a clear breakout of the 94800-95800 range, focus on range-bound trading, paying close attention to reversal signals near the edges. Once volume confirms a breakout, follow the trend decisively but set strict initial stops.

Pay special attention to the battle at the 95000 integer level—this is not only a recent key support/resistance boundary but also a pain point for many options positions. If support is established here and a rebound breaks above 95800, the short-term correction may end; otherwise, a new decline could begin.

(The market is at a critical balance point between bulls and bears. Maintain flexible positions to adapt. Subscribers can access real-time long/short ratio adjustments, precise order placement down to hundreds, and hedging plans for breakout scenarios.)#周末行情分析