2026-01-17 06:21:41

The recent atmosphere in the crypto circle has been a bit eerie. Opening social media, you'll find the entire community split into two worlds—on one side are the technical analysts ringing the alarm bells saying "Bear market is here," and on the other side are the builders whispering "Regulatory favorable policies are about to land." This sense of division is quite interesting.

Let's start with the bearish camp. Benjamin Cowen, a well-known figure in technical analysis, recently shared a viewpoint: based on the "mid-year" theory and historical backtesting (using 2015 and 2019 as benchmarks), the market is very likely to enter a "weak correction year" in 2026. In his analysis video, he repeatedly emphasized that once Bitcoin officially enters a bear market, the pressure on Ethereum and altcoins will only increase. This kind of sentiment isn't an isolated phenomenon; many traders are comparing the current market weakness to the dullness at the end of the 2022 bear market.

Where does the most genuine reflection of panic come from? It’s in the Fear and Greed Index. On January 5th, this number once dropped to 26, firmly in the "fear" zone. Although it has recently rebounded a bit, wavering between neutral and greed, this sharp fluctuation itself indicates a problem—the market confidence is extremely fragile. Like a string stretched to its limit, a slight blow could snap it.

On the other side, there are also voices singing a different tune. 2025 is being defined by many industry insiders as the "Year Zero" of crypto regulation. Behind this narrative lies the builders' hope for a reshaping of rules. Whose prediction will come true remains to be seen, depending on how the market unfolds in the coming months.

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ShibaMillionairen't

· 4h ago

Bear market warning + regulatory positive, these two voices are clashing... To be honest, I trust the builders more. I've been listening to Benjamin's theories for five years. Wait, the fear index at 26? Isn't that a signal to bottom out? Why are people still fleeing? The 2025 rules are being reshaped. I bet this will be a turning point, but only if we make it that far. If Bitcoin really enters a bear market, then Ethereum and altcoins will be truly desperate... But looking at the patterns from 2015 and 2019, cyclical behavior definitely exists. That said, confidence may be fragile, but every time this happens, someone quietly accumulates chips at the bottom. I don't know who will win; anyway, just stacking coins is enough. This wave of market action is too fragmented; it feels like the current circle is like two parallel universes.

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DAOdreamer

· 4h ago

It's really just two parallel universes, one shouting wolf and the other laying tiles, hilarious. --- Benjamin Cowen is back to showing off his math skills. Starting to be afraid of 2026 now? I just want to ask, who can be accurate? --- How many people bought the dip when the fear index was at 26? Now they're wavering again, always the same behavior. --- I've been hearing about the regulatory first year for three years. The builders are really good at making things up, haha. --- Tearing sensation? That's what the market is, brother. When no one can agree, that's the real opportunity. --- Predicting a bear market in 2026 using 2015 as a benchmark—this logic is truly absurd. --- Altcoins under pressure? They should have grown big by now. It's a bit late to say this now. --- The analogy of this string is pretty good, but you also underestimate the market resilience.

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SandwichTrader

· 4h ago

Hmm... Benjamin Cowen is back again. This guy said that 2026 will be weak, and that reassures me. Buying against the trend is definitely the right move. Honestly, the sense of tearing is not strange; what's strange is that some people still believe technical analysis can predict events two years from now, haha. On the day the fear index hit 26, I happened to be bottom-fishing. Now it seems whether I made a profit or a loss... let's wait and see. Regulatory favorable policies coming into effect? Builders love this kind of thing. Why haven't there been any updates yet?

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Hash_Bandit

· 4h ago

nah fr the split's getting wild, but honestly? been through enough cycles to know this script by heart. bears calling doom, builders prepping the picks—classic pattern. fear index hitting 26 reminded me of early 2022, and yeah, the network's holding but the vibes are definitely shaky rn. 2026 predictions feel like tea leaves to me tbh

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CrossChainBreather

· 5h ago

To be honest, this kind of split is quite normal. Being bullish or bearish is basically a gamble. Benjamin's "Mid-Year Annual" theory has been heard several times. Backtesting looks good, but that doesn't mean the future will follow the same pattern. The key still depends on whether regulation can really give a clear answer; otherwise, it's all talk. I almost laughed on the day the Fear Index hit 26. These people are really scared out of their minds. Speaking of which, the 2026 timeline is too far away. Let's focus on getting through the current month first. Constructors are indeed a bit naive, but we can't take all the warnings from the bears seriously either. Instead of arguing over who predicted correctly, it's better to think about how to defend oneself. Regulation's first year sounds very high-level, but if it actually materializes, it might not be a good thing. I'm already used to the market fluctuations; every day people shout about a break, but it just doesn't happen. Both sides have valid points, but no one can truly see clearly, and that's the most heartbreaking part.

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ParallelChainMaxi

· 5h ago

Bear market theory and regulatory positive news theory, both sides are arguing, I can't tell whose historical backtesting is more reliable. When the fear index dropped to 26, I knew the bottom was near. Now it's swinging back and forth, everyone is gambling. Benjamin Cowen said the market will have a weak correction in 2026, so why are some still buying shanzhai projects now? The first year of regulation sounds good, but I'm just worried it will be the same old "wolf is coming" story. Confidence is so fragile that a single news can scare people into jumping off buildings. This is probably the daily life of crypto. The bearish camp and the bullish camp are always fighting; actually, they are just betting on their own positions. The index is so volatile, indicating that the main players are shaking out their positions. The real opportunity might be in this chaos. Who can say for sure what will happen in 2026? I'm still thinking about how to navigate this summer.

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