2026-01-17 07:21:48

ETH these days seem to be frozen, with the 1-hour chart showing no movement at all. This strange calm makes people a bit uneasy. The market was eerily quiet on Saturday. Is this pre-storm buildup, or is some signal brewing bad news?

The most heartbreaking part is that the problem isn't just technical. Policy-level shocks are coming.

**Policy Shockwave Arrives**

Latest news shows a reversal in the Federal Reserve's personnel adjustments, with dovish officials being phased out and a clear hawkish tilt. The direct result is that market expectations for rate cuts in 2026 have been halved, with the probability of no rate cuts for the entire year soaring to 11.8%. The dollar has strengthened accordingly, putting liquidity pressure on crypto assets. For mainstream coins like ETH, this is a heavy bearish signal in the medium to long term.

Another variable is that the White House isn't sitting idle either. There has been a major shift in policy attitude toward a certain leading exchange, even threatening to revoke related legislative support. This escalation in policy game-playing has pushed industry uncertainty to its peak.

**Technical Analysis: Key Levels Decide Life or Death**

From the K-line chart, ETH on the 4-hour timeframe has entered a consolidation phase with decreasing volume. At this point, certain key technical levels have become the life or death line for bulls and bears. The BOLL channel has narrowed to the extreme, with the middle band around 3312.62, upper band at 3370.86, and lower band at 3254. These three levels, especially around 3280, are testing the market's true bottom.

The overall tightening of policy and the cooling macro environment have long pushed market sentiment to freezing point. ETH has lost macro-level support and now faces the pressure of a "policy top." If this round cannot be broken through quickly, sideways trading may become a long-term scenario.

ETH-0.15%

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OfflineValidator

· 5h ago

Weirdly calm, that's all. On the policy side, they're still throwing bombs. ETH is either frozen or smashed. Just sitting here waiting to see if 3280 breaks or not. Anyway, I'm just relaxing. The Federal Reserve's shift... really, it's a bit unsettling.

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BanklessAtHeart

· 5h ago

Wait a minute, the Fed's recent actions really confused me. The rate cut expectations were directly cut in half? Isn't this essentially sentencing ETH to death. If we can't hold around 3280, we might really need to prepare for a long-term bottom-fishing strategy. The policy side is unpredictable, and exchanges are being threatened. Who can withstand this? The silence this weekend is a bit strange, feeling less like calm and more like brewing some bad news. A strengthening dollar means liquidity is fleeing out, how can ETH withstand this? It's exhausting.

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LiquidityHunter

· 5h ago

This dead market is the most dangerous. Don't be fooled by talk of accumulation; it's clearly policy pressure coming down. With the Federal Reserve turning hawkish and the White House targeting exchanges, what can ETH do against this double squeeze? Liquidity has been completely drained. If 3280 can't be broken, it might stay sideways for a long time. Don't regret not taking action early when the time comes.

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GasFeeBeggar

· 5h ago

Oh no, it's the same old combo—hawkish Federal Reserve + White House stirring up trouble, and ETH just stays flat. This is really uncomfortable. Feeling like waiting to be doomed. Instead of guessing the storm, just go ahead and buy the dip at 3280. Policies are the most disgusting thing; no matter how good the technicals look, it's useless. Once liquidity is pulled out, the game is over. If this sideways movement really becomes the norm, we need to be mentally prepared.

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ForeverBuyingDips

· 5h ago

Once again, policy crackdown, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is really tough. This time, ETH might be stuck at 3280 for a while. --- Dollar strength and liquidity exhaustion, there's not much to see in the short term. Wait until the policies are implemented before making any moves. --- The strange calmness is just absorbing orders. Those cutting losses now are just fools; patience and holding is the key. --- If 3280 can't be broken, the market might stay stagnant until next year. Forget it, better to add positions and lower the average cost. --- White House threatens to revoke bill support? These politicians really know how to play. Retail investors are the ones who end up getting cut last. --- Low volume and choppy movements are the most annoying. Not moving at all, but still exhausting your patience. --- With such strong policy pressure, where's the rebound space? Better to hold firm and wait. --- It feels like a big move is brewing, but I don't know if it's up or down, which is the most uncomfortable. --- If 3370 can't be broken directly, then be prepared for a prolonged battle.

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