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Recently, a certain cryptocurrency has started a rebound rally, and many people are asking where the support and resistance levels are, and whether it's a bullish move or just a rebound. My view might differ from most—this upward movement is actually just a rebound.
Why do I say that? The last decline was too harsh, with a deep correction that completely destroyed the upward trend. Retail investors are scared of being trapped, developing psychological shadows, and when they see a rebound, they become suspicious and lack the courage to chase highs. The big players also feel uncomfortable; they pushed the price down too low, and there are too many bottom-fishers. Moreover, retail investors, having been cut earlier, will sell immediately once they see profits, showing no loyalty.
Therefore, the next script is basically set—this coin will enter a long-term consolidation phase. It will take quite some time to clean out the bottom chips, then repeatedly test upward, gradually dispel retail investors' fear of heights, and slowly teach them to chase gains. This is not a task that can be completed in a day or two; after all, the last cut was so deep that people's hearts are badly hurt, and it takes time to restore confidence.
From a technical perspective, my target is in the range of 0.134 to 0.1800. But there is a key signal here—once the RSI shows a death cross, it’s time to clear the position. Don’t hold long positions; it will really die. Whether to go short or not doesn’t matter, but holding long positions stubbornly is just gambling, and I don’t recommend it.