2026-01-17 16:23:43

2025 has already provided the answer: the traditional 4-year cycle has become invalid.

This is the first year after the halving, and it also witnesses the market breaking historical patterns. The once "predictable" model has been completely rewritten. What we see is no longer the logic from textbooks.

$BTC stands at the watershed of a new era. The rules have been reset, and trends are difficult to predict. Market participants need to abandon old routines, stay highly alert, and be ready to adapt to the ever-changing market rhythm.

The old cycle theory may now be a thing of the past. Where is the new driving force? It’s worth deep reflection.

BTC-0.15%

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GreenCandleCollector

· 5h ago

Cycle expiration? To put it nicely, it actually means no one really understands what happened. HODLing coins is still necessary, just no longer according to the old lunar calendar. New driving force? I bet it's institutions and policies; individual players have already been marginalized. If the rules reset, then reset. Anyway, it's all gambling, and no one has an advantage. If this round still relies on halving cycles to speculate, you'll definitely get harvested.

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SignatureLiquidator

· 5h ago

Is the cycle theory about to fail again? I've been saying for a long time that this model is no longer effective. Breaking the rules is good, at least you can still make money. BTC has really changed; that textbook approach is completely useless now. Four-year cycle? Laughable, the market has already evolved. New driving force? Find it yourself, no one will tell you. Talking about resetting rules all day long, actually it just means no one understands the market anymore. What's there to be alert about? It's just follow-the-trend buying and selling. The cycle theory is dead; now it's all about luck and information asymmetry.

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SatoshiLeftOnRead

· 5h ago

I haven't finished reading and I already find it a bit ridiculous—it's only January, and you're saying the cycle has failed? Wait, isn't the new driving force just retail investors疯狂ly taking over... The old cycle theory might really be outdated, but the confidence in this article can't be sustained

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