Speaking of the XPL project, its recent trend indeed raises concerns. Someone once flipped $8390 worth of tokens from a $0.1 airdrop, but now the price hovers around $0.14, down over 10% in a week, and the gap between this and the previous high of $1.6 is enormous.

The real trouble is right in front of us—the 2.5 billion tokens unlocking in July this year. This accounts for a quarter of the total circulating supply, and these tokens cost only $0.05 each. Once unlocked, the selling pressure on the market could be significant. Many people's current panic is actually an early digestion of this expectation; rather than a decline, it's more like "pricing in" this risk.

How to play? It all depends on how you view this life-and-death test.

**First approach: Bet on ecosystem breakthrough**

If Plasma's flagship "Gas-free USDT transfer" feature really gains traction and attracts enough users and funds, the selling pressure from the token unlock could be absorbed by market vitality. From this perspective, the current psychological price of $0.14 can be considered for a light long position, but only if stop-losses are set. Don’t expect a meteoric rise; this is about betting on rebound potential.

**Second approach: Bet on unlocking pressure realization**

Some people don’t believe the ecosystem can fully offset the unlocking pressure. If, as July approaches, the market remains filled with panic, the decline could accelerate. In this case, watch key resistance levels, such as $0.16. If it fails to break through, consider short positions. But don’t be stubborn—sometimes, exhausting the negative news can turn into a turning point.

**Most practical advice**

XPL’s volatility is extraordinary; trading contracts requires a light touch, with stop-losses in place before acting. Don’t rely solely on news; what truly indicates the situation is the trading volume of on-chain stablecoins—whether that number is really growing. Compared to any news, on-chain data is harder to fake.

Ultimately, XPL now stands at the crossroads of "danger" and "opportunity." The interpretation is in your hands—either bet on the ecosystem story overcoming the unlocking wave or bet on continued market panic. The key is to understand your own risk tolerance.