#数字资产市场动态 Power Struggles Heat Up: The Fed's Days Might Not Be So Easy

This week, the market was hit with a cold splash right at the opening. Trump directly targeted Federal Reserve Chair Powell through the Department of Justice, sharply undermining the "independence of the central bank." Although the market stabilized afterward, the undercurrent of tension was hard to suppress — the bigger confrontation may still be ahead.

To understand what might happen next, focus on two key clues:

**Money Issue**: The US has a $4 trillion fiscal deficit looming, which cannot be covered by tariff revenues. Ultimately, it will likely rely on the printing press. The problem is, in an environment of high inflation, printing money recklessly erodes the dollar’s credibility, which is already hanging in the air. The market is betting whether the Fed can maintain inflation control, while the Fed is betting whether fiscal policy can calm down.

**People Issue**: Trump not only wants to influence the Fed’s decisions but is even planning to replace the chair — candidates with backgrounds are already emerging. Once personnel decisions are made, the logic behind interest rate policies might shift from "monitoring economic data" to "listening to the top."

What does this mean? When fiscal reckless spending conflicts with central bank policy goals, traditional asset allocation logic begins to fail. Prices of traditional assets like gold, oil, and stocks are highly volatile, indicating that institutions and retail investors are starting to get restless.

More notably, in the face of such uncertainty, capital will naturally seek "off-system" options. If traditional anchors like the dollar and US Treasuries start to wobble, assets that are not bound by the same rules — such as cryptocurrencies — will become relatively more attractive. This is not a new story; it’s just that when old stories collapse, new options naturally emerge.

The following key points are worth watching:

· PCE inflation data release (the Fed’s most important indicator)
· The Bank of Japan’s policy moves (whether the central bank will continue tightening)
· Policy signals that may be released at the Davos Forum

What’s your view? Which direction will this shift in central power ultimately push the market? Can the market find balance within the traditional framework, or will this become a turning point for re-pricing in the crypto market?