2026-2-27 20-24 Main Path

"Break below the lower boundary of the range ~ Weak rebound confirmation ~ Continued decline"
ETH just broke down from the oscillation platform above 2060 with a surge in volume, hitting a low around 1951. Afterwards, it only saw a slight rebound back to 1960-1980, with the 15-minute rebound failing to even cross back above the middle band.

Currently, the price is still being suppressed by the 15-minute middle band + 1-hour moving average resonance
( approximately 2000-2020 ).
The structure has shifted from your previous version's
"Oscillation slightly bearish" ~ to a confirmed downward structure
It belongs to:
Upper consolidation ~ Break below the range ~ Failed rebound ~ Bearish continuation

Now it is no longer range-bound oscillation, but a weak trend after a breakdown.

Current rhythm:
Breakdown downward ~ Technical rebound ~ Weakening again ~ Continuous shift of the center of gravity

Technical structural details
BOLL
15m:
Price running along the lower band
Middle band clearly turning downward
Rebound unable to touch the upper band
Standard bearish trend channel

1H:
Price has already moved below the middle band
Bandwidth re-opened
Lower band starting to move downward
Trend initiation features ( not oscillation )
MACD
15m:
Green bars continue to expand with slight shortening
No golden cross formed
Rebound is just a correction
1H:
Death cross and below zero line
Medium-term bearish dominance

RSI
15m:
Long-term below 40
Weak rebound to 45 then falls back
Bullish momentum weak
1H:
Fallen into the 40 zone
Entered weak trend area ( very critical )

Secondary Path
"1960-1980 weak oscillation ~ Further test below 1950"
If the short-term does not quickly recover above 2000,
The market will likely enter:
​1950-2000 weak oscillation downward range
Note:
As long as the rebound cannot reach above 2000,
It is all a correction within a downtrend, not a reversal.

Support levels
First support: 1950
Second support: 1920
Main support: 1880-1900

Resistance levels
First resistance: 1980
Second resistance: 2000-2020 ( Key empty zone ) Strong resistance: 2060

Alternative Path
If 15m volume stabilizes above 2020 and 1H MACD begins to converge,
The trend will enter a stronger rebound.
Target:
2050-2070. If it breaks below 1950, the bear will open space.
Targets:
1920-1900-1880

Trading Suggestions
Long Position Strategy
Entry zone: 1920-1950
Stop loss: 1880
Target: 1980-2000
( Only consider oversold rebounds, do not chase )

Short Position Strategy
Entry zone: 1980-2020
Stop loss: 2055
Target: 1950-1920-1900
Core logic:
It has already upgraded from "high-altitude priority" to trend bearish priority; low longs only for quick rebounds.

Rhythm Summary
The current market is no longer oscillation slightly bearish, but a weak trend decline after a breakdown.

Features:
Obvious middle band suppression
Rebound height continuously decreasing, price running along the lower band, 1H enters bearish zone

Operational advice: do not bottom fish, do not chase longs
Rebounds are just conclusions for the short position
ETH has already broken the range, market is entering a downward rhythm.
If it cannot hold above 2000, do not expect trend reversal. Breaking below 1950 will lead to accelerated decline.
Breaking below 1950 will lead to accelerated decline.
In the short term:
Rebound mainly within the 1950-2020 range for shorting. $ETH