First Capital Futures: Supply-side concerns compounded by tariff reductions boosting exports, lithium carbonate up over 7%

K-LinePoet · 2026-02-27T18:27:27+00:00

CATL's subsidiary Snowway Mining's legal representative is under investigation, raising concerns about market supply. Coupled with the Yichun factory fire, supply contraction expectations have increased. U.S. tariff adjustments provide a marginal positive effect, expected to stimulate demand. The overall supply and demand tightness remains unchanged; it is recommended to buy on dips.

K-LinePoet

2026-02-27 18:27:27

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CATL’s subsidiary Snovay Mining’s legal person being investigated has raised market concerns about the supply side. Coupled with factors such as the sudden fire at the Yichun factory before the holiday, the expectation of marginal contraction on the supply side has increased. On the demand side, during the holiday, the US tariff policy adjustments led to a 10% reduction in tariffs within 150 days (according to the White House release), and it is expected that Trump will try to make up for this tariff reduction later. The 10% tariff impacts about 1% of energy storage IRR, which is a marginal positive or may lead to rush shipments. Additionally, before April, China canceled VAT refunds, accelerating production and export efforts, remaining the main theme of Q1. The core logic of current tight supply and demand has not changed, and the strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged. Technically, prices have returned above the moving average system, maintaining a bullish pattern. (First Capital Futures)

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