Growing US Deficit in December: Record Levels and Unexpected Trends

The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly accelerated in December 2025, disrupting optimistic analyst forecasts. The U.S. Department of Commerce released data that raised serious questions about the country’s international trade balance. This deficit covered many aspects of American trade, from retail imports to complex manufacturing equipment supplies.

Unexpected surge and missed forecasts

Instead of a expected decline, the trade deficit increased by nearly 33%, reaching $70.3 billion — the highest level in the past five months. The market was preparing for a more positive scenario: analysts predicted the deficit would decrease to $55.5 billion, but the reality showed a completely different picture. The gap between expectations and actual data exceeded $15 billion, signaling a significant import overshoot.

Imports became the main driver of deficit growth

The main reason for the sharp increase in the deficit was an unexpectedly strong influx of imports. According to RTHK, the significant expansion of foreign goods purchases led to this spike. This highlights that American companies and consumers continue to actively turn to foreign suppliers, despite efforts to shift toward domestic production.

Annual balance and record trade deficit

Looking at the annual picture, the situation appears somewhat different. Over the entire 2025 year, the U.S. trade deficit decreased by 0.2%, totaling $901.5 billion. However, within this reduction, a contradictory trend is hidden: the goods deficit increased significantly by 2.1% to a record $1.24 trillion. This growth in the goods deficit demonstrates the increasing dependence of the U.S. on imported goods.

China: process of shifting trade flows

One notable positive aspect in the trade statistics is related to China. The goods deficit with China decreased by nearly 32%, totaling $202.1 billion compared to the same period last year. This significant decline may indicate a process of diversifying supply sources and shifting American imports to other manufacturing countries, although the overall U.S. deficit remains at elevated levels.