Bitcoin plunges into extreme volatility; the silent game of the big whales is the real show

Recent Bitcoin market appears calm as a mirror, but deep inside exchanges, the battle among whales has long become intense. While retail traders focus on the converging price on K-line charts, whale funds are already engaged in a silent psychological war. According to the latest data, BTC is currently priced at $65,530, down 3.22% in 24 hours, but behind this seemingly mild volatility lies an unprecedented concentration of whale trading activity.

Technical Dilemma and Whale Positioning

Bitcoin remains stuck at the very clear triangle convergence end. The $72,000–$74,000 zone above will be the first obstacle; only if the weekly K-line successfully recovers this range can a true bullish reversal be signaled. Otherwise, oscillating within the large range of $61,097–$74,000 remains a high-probability scenario.

From the whales’ perspective, this extreme convergence is actually the most testing moment of patience. They have already absorbed a large amount of chips near $60,000. Every attempt to push higher now is a test to see if other whales are real or fake. This is not random dumping but a carefully orchestrated game.

Under Trump Tariff Turmoil, Big Whales Remain Calm

The biggest news this week is that the Trump tariffs were ruled illegal by the high court. The original IEEPA part has been temporarily suspended, seeming a policy victory. But Trump immediately launched Plan B—under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, he directly raised the global basic tariff from 10% to 15%, effective immediately. When one move is blocked, he quickly switches to another.

Interestingly, in this policy shift, whales have shown extraordinary calm. They did not rush to build positions on good news, nor panic-sell due to policy uncertainty. This calm itself indicates that whales are well-prepared; upcoming policy fluctuations are just another opportunity for them to harvest profits.

US-Iran negotiations remain tense. Trump’s final ultimatum is that Iran must produce a draft agreement within two weeks, or hint at military action. But market reaction is flat, for a simple reason—whales know Trump still has many cards up his sleeve, and market expects he won’t give up easily. The real threat is still ahead.

Exchange Whales in Fierce Battle, On-Chain Silence

The most intriguing data comes from the chain. Over 100 large whales reduced holdings by 781 BTC yesterday, then added 690 BTC today, totaling a net decrease of 696 BTC this week. This seemingly ordinary number actually signals a shocking phenomenon—on-chain whales have largely ceased active trading, and the real battlefield has shifted to internal exchange battles.

The proportion of whales within exchanges has surged to the highest level since 2018. In recent years, only three times has this happened: June 2020, June 2022, and July 2024. Each surge foreshadows a structural market shift. Currently, the struggle among whales far exceeds what surface-level calm suggests.

A detail from yesterday is enough to illustrate the point—BitcoinOG’s 11,000 BTC sell order was silently absorbed in seconds. Is this peace? Clearly, whales are probing with each test to decide the next direction. Every large order isn’t genuine selling intent but a test of opponents’ resolve.

Ethereum Follows Bitcoin, Small Whales Also Watching

Ethereum’s current price is $1,920, down 5.48% in 24 hours, already at the extreme end of convergence. Basically, it’s moving in lockstep with Bitcoin, with the direction entirely dependent on Bitcoin’s next move. ETH’s large whale holdings (between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH) have been zigzagging for weeks without any unusual signs.

What does this mean? It shows even Ethereum whales are waiting for Bitcoin whales to make a decision. The entire market’s rhythm is in the hands of BTC whales. Altcoins have no independent trend; they are just supporting roles.

Surface Calm, Underwater Whale Warfare Rages

The conclusion is simple yet brutal—over the past one or two weeks, Bitcoin’s price has been converging with minimal volatility on the surface, and on-chain activity has dwindled. All this calm is an illusion. Beneath the surface, especially among exchange whales, the tug-of-war has already become extraordinarily fierce.

Market reactions to Trump tariffs remain relatively calm because everyone knows—Trump will not easily give up. The most effective weapon has been confiscated, but he still has a whole arsenal to deploy. The real variables depend on future interest rate cuts, economic developments, and geopolitical shifts.

But the core remains the whales’ movements. When whales probe with dumps, signal with holdings, and announce major shifts through fierce exchange turnover—it’s clear that the real trend is not on the price chart but hidden in the whale’s chip games. Stay observant and wait for the whales’ final choice.