OP price drops to the bottom, MACD histogram turns positive, indicating a reversal signal

The departure of Base from OP Stack indeed triggered excessive market panic. A 32% drop and a 41% revenue loss—these figures seem frightening, but behind them lie real operational signals from professional funds. During the decline from $0.19 to $0.13, those who truly understand the market had already quietly accumulated 60 million OP around $0.14, which is a strong indicator in itself.

Why did the market react uncontrollably after Base left OP Stack?

The core issue in this event is excessive market sentiment. The OP Stack framework itself has not collapsed; the ecosystem is still functioning. The only change is that Base’s decision to deploy independently means Optimism loses some revenue sharing. This is indeed bearish news but not a threat to survival. The problem is retail investors usually hesitate to buy during uptrends and are even more reluctant during declines, spreading panic. Meanwhile, institutions and large players take advantage of the situation.

On-chain whale accumulation signals cannot be ignored

The most telling data is the accumulation of those 60 million OP. Why are large investors continuously building positions around $0.14? Because they have a longer-term view. At the same time, the market is aware that 32.21 million OP will unlock on February 28, which at current prices amounts to over $4 million in sell pressure. This explains why the price was pushed down in advance—institutions are avoiding unlocking risks while gradually accumulating. This is the market’s true logic.

Reversal signals appear on the technical side; the histogram has already “turned positive”

This is the most critical part. Technical indicators show that the MACD histogram has shifted from negative to positive, indicating that short-term selling pressure is weakening and buying strength is beginning to build. Although RSI still fell below the 50 midline, showing continued weakness, the J value of KDJ is extremely oversold, hinting at a rebound. The histogram turning positive is especially important; it usually precedes a price reversal signal.

The 0.12-0.13 support zone will determine the future trend

The current support range is around $0.12–$0.13. If this level holds, a rebound to around $0.14 is almost certain. Conversely, if it falls below $0.12, the next target is $0.10. However, given the histogram has already turned positive and whales are still accumulating, the probability of breaking below is relatively low. The market needs a release window, and unlocking sell pressure provides that. Once the selling pressure is exhausted, a rebound will naturally follow.

Ecosystem remains intact; short-term fluctuations should not cause overreaction

One point to clarify: OP’s ecosystem value has not disappeared because of Base’s departure. As the initiator of OP Stack, Optimism’s technical foundation and developer ecosystem remain strong. In the short term, it’s true that revenue sharing from Base is reduced, but this is not “the end of the world.” For investors caught in the 0.19 high, there’s no need to cut losses now; but if you want to participate in the rebound, the strategy is simple—gradually build positions and absolutely avoid all-in bets.

Layered trading strategies: responses for different risk preferences

Low-risk approach: Gradually buy in small amounts around the $0.12 support zone. Once the price short-term rallies toward resistance near $0.14, consider taking profits. This strategy suits risk-averse investors, leveraging the technical signal of the histogram turning positive for early entry.

Aggressive shorting: If the price truly breaks below $0.12, consider shorting with targets around $0.10. This approach requires strict stop-loss discipline; if the histogram turns negative again, exit immediately.

Overall mindset: Although the market currently looks bleak, when MACD histogram turns positive, whales are accumulating, and unlocking sell pressure is about to be realized, a rebound is often just around the corner. The key is to identify the right entry points and use layered strategies to reduce risk.