The underlying independence of Base: The actual breakthrough in the OP market dilemma

Of course, this is not just a technical architecture adjustment. The decision for Base to migrate from OP Stack to an independent technology stack has become a key point for market interpretation of the optimism ecosystem’s prospects. Based on community reactions, market panic has sharply intensified—the OP token hit a new all-time low (ATL) following the announcement, and funding enthusiasm dropped to extreme lows. However, beneath the surface of market pessimism, we need to understand the real logic behind this departure.

From Technical Dependence to Independence: Why Base Decided to Leave the OP Stack Ecosystem

The Base team clearly explained the technical core of this decision in their official blog: the project is upgrading from a model of “many components stacked together + reliance on external partners” to a “unified independent technology stack.” In other words, Base aims to free itself from the OP Stack framework and gain full control over its entire technical cycle—from node software releases and system upgrades to data packaging—all directly managed by the Base team.

The essence of this shift is a reallocation of power. As the largest L2 project on OP Stack for a long time, Base has provided significant platform effects for Optimism, even serving as the economic engine of the entire “OP Stack ecosystem story.” However, technical independence also means autonomous decision-making and a certain negation of the authority of the Optimism platform. This is not a quality issue—Base explicitly emphasized in their official statement that they will continue to cooperate with Optimism as an OP Enterprise (enterprise-level technical support)—this is a matter of ecosystem power structure.

The Chain Reaction of Base’s Departure: How Will Superchain’s Revenue and Power Dynamics Be Rewritten?

The market’s panic can be summarized by two core concerns: first, as the largest OP Stack client, Base’s departure directly threatens a key revenue source for Optimism; second, “if Base can be independent, will other L2 projects follow suit?”—this worry further amplifies doubts about the stability of the Superchain ecosystem.

Superchain is a crucial strategic component for Optimism—supporting multiple L2 chains like OP Mainnet, Unichain, World Chain, and Soneium through the OP Stack framework. Base’s independent use will inevitably weaken Optimism’s technical influence within this “chain collection.” Moreover, the revenue structure will be directly affected: previously, various technical and version upgrade fees generated by Base flowed to the Optimism Foundation; moving forward, this cash flow will significantly decrease.

For market participants, this shift signals a negative outlook: the “future commercialization prospects” of the Optimism platform are shrinking. The tepid response from the funding market reflects this—it’s not a rejection of Optimism’s technological innovation but a reassessment of the project’s long-term profitability.

Optimism Foundation’s Response: How Buyback Mechanisms and Long-term Commitments Can Stabilize Market Expectations

But the story isn’t all dark. The buyback program launched by the Optimism Foundation in January indicates that the management team has anticipated such risks. They proposed a clear commitment: 50% of the income generated by the Superchain will be used for monthly OP token buybacks. This proposal received 84.4% support in community voting, with a 12-month pilot period.

The buyback mechanism sends a clear message to the market—it creates a systematic demand-side support. Regular monthly token repurchases not only provide a price floor through market demand but also signal management’s confidence in future income streams. Although Base’s departure will reduce the overall revenue of the Superchain and thus the absolute scale of buybacks, this mechanism remains effective— even with diminished income, it will continue to support the market.

Additionally, Base’s continued cooperation with Optimism as an OP Enterprise client indicates that their technical relationship remains intact, just in a different form. This suggests that the technical quality of Optimism is recognized by the Base team; independence is not rejection but a pursuit of greater autonomy.

Graphical Narrative: How OP’s Technical Chart Foretells Future Trends

From a technical perspective, the OP token’s chart has already shown a clear turning point. In January, OP briefly formed the expected “short-term ascending wedge” pattern, but ultimately broke downward—this was confirmed when it returned to a stable downtrend on the 25th. Since then, it has been declining, reaching the all-time low on October 10, now setting new lows.

At the current price of $0.12, the daily chart has given two strong signals, providing a basis for a potential rebound. However, on the weekly chart, the next clear support target is around $0.1410. The key point is that the current price has broken through all traditional support levels, with daily targets already reached. Based on the chart’s logic, it’s either forming a reversal signal at the bottom or continuing to explore lower price levels.

It’s important to emphasize that while the two strong daily signals increase the likelihood of a rebound, they are not yet definitive proof of a trend reversal. True confirmation requires alignment with lower timeframes (hourly or below). If the 4-hour or shorter charts resonate with the daily signals, the sustainability of the rebound can be better assured.

Bottom Hunting: What Does the Current Stage Mean for Long-term Holders

From an individual investment perspective, early holdings of OP tokens are currently at highly favorable cost bases. The initial position was established in September 2022 at an average of about $0.945, and during the subsequent rally, it peaked at $2.243, allowing profit-taking (a 139.53% gain). The strategy was to lock in profits after reaching the initial target and continue to hold some capital for long-term allocation.

The second position was added in October 2024, during the significant dip on October 10, with an average buy-in of about $0.4414. Eight out of nineteen selected assets (including OP) were purchased at these extreme lows. The current portfolio is down about 62.83%, with OP alone down 68.12%.

While these figures look alarming, for long-term investors aiming for “significant liquidity influx into quality tokens,” the current downturn actually reinforces the logic of holding. The more pessimistic the market becomes, the closer it gets to the opportunity window long-term allocators are waiting for. The key is to maintain these bottom positions until the next liquidity cycle arrives.

Overall, OP faces a dual dilemma of “institutional challenges + market sentiment suppression.” But the management’s buyback commitments, ongoing technical cooperation with Base, and the bottom signals on the daily chart are providing structural support for this difficult situation.