Why does Bitcoin surge rapidly and then decline slowly? Decoding the hidden patterns in the crypto market

Most investors dream of perfectly selling at the top during a bull market and precisely buying the bottom during a bear market. However, the fundamental pattern of rapid rises and slow declines in the crypto market makes this dream almost impossible to achieve. Bull and bear markets can only be clearly identified in hindsight. During the market’s evolution, no one can truly grasp the exact direction.

How Cognitive Biases Lead to Poor Decisions

Many believe that once the price hits $100,000, they should sell; if it drops to $70,000, they should buy. But the market constantly questions: what if it rises to $150,000 or $200,000? What if it falls to $50,000 or $60,000? Due to this uncertainty, so-called bull market selling and bear market bottoming are mostly based on luck. In trading, investors can only control three things: when to buy, when to sell, and the quantities involved. Everything else is beyond control.

Looking back is always clearer. Today’s $100,000 might have been the right point to sell, but at the time, no one knew when to bottom out. After the price drops to $50,000 and then rebounds to $200,000, investors realize, “The real buying point was between $50,000 and $80,000.” But what if the market doesn’t fluctuate like that? This perception can never be verified. If the concept is wrong, cognition will be skewed; if cognition is skewed, behavior will be flawed; and if behavior is flawed, profits become very difficult.

The Nature of Rapid Rises and Slow Declines

Bitcoin’s journey from $15,000 to $100,000 seems passionate, as if it’s a continuous upward climb. In reality, the actual rapid surge only lasted a few days; most of the time, the market was oscillating. The market accumulates strength during these fluctuations, then suddenly surges at a certain moment. If you’re not continuously participating, you’ll be left behind. It’s like starting a car that suddenly accelerates—you can’t catch up if you’re not already in it. Only those who stay in the vehicle won’t be left behind.

The transition from a bull to a bear market is even harder to notice. For example, if the current price is $80,000, and altcoins have already fallen 70%, they might still drop another 50%. This hidden decline is the easiest trap to deceive investors.

Why Is It Hardest to Cut Losses During a Downtrend? The Psychology of Rebound Traps

Many people see warning signs of decline but hesitate to sell. It’s not because they can’t see clearly; it’s because the slow decline in crypto makes it psychologically difficult. Imagine this scenario: investing 1 million yuan, which eventually rises to 3 million, but starts falling near the peak. When it drops to 2.7 million, the investor thinks, “I’ll sell at 3 million.” When it rebounds to 2.8 million, they change their mind: “Sell at 2.8 million.” The market continues down to 2.5 million, and the investor finally gives up on stop-loss. Eventually, the price slides to 1 million or even 500,000. During this process, every rebound sparks a fantasy of “returning to the high,” but the market has already changed.

This isn’t due to weak willpower but a lack of deliberate psychological training. The gradual decline dulls alertness. A sudden crash might trigger panic selling, but the reality is that repeated small rebounds trap investors into staying. Prices go up a little, then down a little, then up again—over half a year, the investment shrinks by 90%, yet investors often don’t realize how much they’ve lost.

The Art of Market Makers’ Disguised Exit and Quiet Wealth Transfer

Why doesn’t the market crash rapidly? The answer lies in the logic of market manipulators. Selling large amounts at once would push prices down sharply and fetch poor prices. So, they choose to unload slowly—using rebounds and positive news to gradually realize profits. Only when a chain reaction occurs does a “disaster-level” crash happen. At that point, it’s an opportunity for the bold, because after a sharp drop, prices tend to rebound quickly.

The most torturous part of a decline is the psychological torment. Especially with altcoins, if the decline isn’t rapid but involves repeated “drop—rise—drop—rise,” prices can quietly slide 90%. New investors can’t perceive this gradual downward trend, which is the fundamental reason they fail to profit in the first cycle.

The Power of Experience and Deliberate Training

In the second cycle, if you keep trading altcoins, experience becomes your best teacher. Investors get used to cutting losses. When the market shows signs of abnormal decline, they immediately switch to caution. When an altcoin drops from a 10x gain back to 7x, seasoned investors will exit without hesitation, no longer obsessing over “how much more to earn.”

Cutting losses, often criticized, is something you must experience firsthand. The first time hurts, the second time numbs, the third time becomes calm, and the fourth time is easy. After these four lessons, no altcoin can deceive you. If the market’s tone isn’t right, you exit immediately.

Many suffer because they lack this training. They see selling as “cutting losses,” clinging to rising markets, which causes them to lose reaction ability during declines.

The Human Nature Code in Market Operation

The market fundamentally operates in accordance with human nature. When people desire rapid gains, the market will unconsciously surge; when they hope for a slow decline and rebounds, the market will show slow declines and repeated rebounds.

But traders who understand human nature can stay calm during rapid surges and stay highly alert during slow declines. Once they sense any signs of movement, they exit early. Those who stay are often the stubborn ones waiting for “altcoins to take off again,” unaware that the market has already completed a wealth transfer through a wave of行情. This process is quiet and ongoing. Only those with deliberate training can sense it and seize opportunities within market bubbles.

The pattern of rapid rises and slow declines is the cruelest yet most authentic reflection of this market.