The next 7 to 21 days are the most critical window to watch.

During this period, if there is no US ground intervention, no larger-scale blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and no new heavy strikes on neighboring oil-producing countries' facilities, then the conflict is likely to shift from ongoing escalation to a marginal cooling under high-pressure confrontation.
Conversely, the following situations indicate that cooling is unlikely:
- Trump continues to pursue larger objectives, especially those close to regime change
- Iran continues to expand targets such as oil tankers, the Strait, and neighboring countries
- The Strait of Hormuz remains inaccessible for an extended period
If these signals continue to strengthen, it will not be a cooling but a second round of escalation.