Standard Chartered criticizes the positioning on Bitcoin as the market faces multiple pressures

According to Standard Chartered’s analysis, the cryptocurrency market is in a critical phase, with Bitcoin facing increasing short-term pressures. Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, indicated that deteriorating investor sentiment and tightening macroeconomic conditions are reshaping market dynamics, exposing Bitcoin to further correction risks.

Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Revision of Forecasts

The macroeconomic landscape has undergone a significant reversal with the gradual discrediting of Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. This shift in outlook has amplified uncertainty in global financial markets, exerting considerable pressure on digital assets. The situation has forced Standard Chartered to recalibrate its projections: the end-of-2026 price target for Bitcoin has been lowered from $150,000 to $100,000, while hopes of reaching the $100,000 threshold by the end of 2025 have not materialized.

The bank’s analysis highlights how evolving macroeconomic conditions have led to a correction in expectations, creating a more cautious environment among market participants.

ETFs and Weakening Institutional Demand

A key factor in recent market dynamics has been the significant outflow from spot Bitcoin funds. Since hitting a peak in October 2025, total ETF holdings have decreased by approximately 100,000 Bitcoin. Investors who accumulated positions at an average price of around $90,000 are now facing unrealized losses, posing the risk of further selling pressure if sentiment deteriorates further.

Alongside ETF outflows, institutional operators have also moderated their purchases. The contraction in corporate fund allocations has significantly slowed large-scale demand for digital assets. Standard Chartered observed that institutional inflows no longer maintain the relative strength seen in previous periods, with ETF flows becoming the primary indicator of market buying dynamics.

The bank’s quantitative analysis reveals that currently only about 50% of circulating Bitcoin is in profit—a percentage that, while less dramatic than previous bear cycles, still indicates significant market pressure and contributes to a cautious sentiment among traders and institutions.

Recent Volatility and Pressures on Ethereum

Volatility has characterized Bitcoin’s recent market behavior. Bitcoin dropped to $60,008—the lowest level in 16 months—before stabilizing around $69,260 (data as of March 2026). Ethereum has not avoided similar turbulence, with analysts suggesting further corrections toward levels around $1,400 if pressures persist.

Standard Chartered’s Long-Term Outlook

Despite current challenges, Standard Chartered maintains a constructive stance on Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. A differentiating factor from previous cycles is the absence of systemic crises on trading platforms, signaling improved market structures. On-chain analysis suggests underlying resilience within the ecosystem, supporting a cautiously optimistic outlook despite recent volatility.

The bank reaffirmed confidence in its ambitious price target for 2030, maintaining the $500,000 goal unchanged. This contrast between the lowered short-term forecasts and the more optimistic long-term expectations reflects Standard Chartered’s view of a transitioning market, where temporary corrections do not erode the fundamental strengths of the cryptocurrency ecosystem.