Caixin Survey | Consumption growth may accelerate in January-February; industrial and export growth may slow slightly

WealthCoffee · 2026-03-12T03:23:51+00:00

Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the industrial production growth rate in January and February may slow down, with an estimated growth rate of 5.1%. Although consumption has rebounded under the support of the old-for-new policy, investment growth remains negative, and exports remain resilient. Some institutions have slightly raised their forecasts for industrial added value.

WealthCoffee

2026-03-12 03:23:51

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[Caixin] Due to the long Spring Festival holiday leading to fewer working days, the growth rate of industrial production from January to February may slow down. The replacement of old with new supporting categories will once again boost consumption. Investment growth remains negative, but exports remain resilient.

A recent survey by Caixin Media of 13 domestic and foreign institutions shows that, on the production side, economists’ average forecast for the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in January and February is 5.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value. The median is 5.0%, with a survey range of 4.5% to 6.9%. The previous value was 5.2%, and three institutions’ forecasts are higher than the previous value.

Zhang Yu, Chief Economist at Huachuang Securities, expects the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in January and February to be around 5.5%. On one hand, freight transportation is strong. As of March 1, the total year-on-year increase in highway freight volume was 5.6%, compared to 5.1% in the same period in 2025. Combined with export data, it is expected that exports will drive strong freight growth, indicating robust production at the start of the year. However, due to adjustments in subsidy policies, automobile production may be somewhat weak.

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