The超预期战法 (超预期 strategy) is a double-edged sword. When used properly, it can double your gains every month; when used improperly, it can cut your gains in half each month.

StrawberryIce · 2026-03-12T03:36:12+00:00

The article analyzes the emotional cycle of the stock market and timing strategies, indicating that it is currently in a chaotic phase with poor sentiment. Investors should exercise caution. It emphasizes core stock selection and selling strategies, recommending maintaining a cash position during recession and strong divergence periods, and responding flexibly to market changes to avoid risks and achieve returns.

StrawberryIce

2026-03-12 03:36:12

Abstract generation in progress

Sentiment Cycle [Taogu Ba]
(1) Cycle: Chaos phase, Day 21.
(2) Sentiment: Poor profit effect. (Very good, good, fair, poor, very poor)
Timing
(1) The market closes with a small positive line, white on top, yellow on bottom; avoid action.
(2) Shun Na Shares’ failed re-accumulation causes short-term sentiment pressure; the high-standard leader Li’an Security (three-board group) drops below the three-line after 1 minute of opening, impacting short-term sentiment.
Shun Na Shares’ pre-market price matches expectations, quickly rises at open, but without expected difference, reducing the anticipation of hitting the board, leading to failure. Such bidding behavior has almost no precedent of successful re-accumulation.
Continuous Board Ladder
601789 Ningbo Construction 14:13 4 OpenClaw Concept
002445 Zhongnan Culture 9:25 3 Asset Restructuring
603803 Ruisikangda 9:34 2 Optical Communication
000537 Green Power Electricity 9:42 2 Smart Grid
600769 Xianglong Electric 11:08 2 Chips
600172 Yellow River Cyclone 11:27 2 AI Hardware
600108 Yasheng Group 13:42 2 Agriculture
600726 Huaneng Energy 14:03 2 Smart Grid
000839 Guoan Shares 14:17 2 OpenClaw Concept
603421 Dingxin Communications 14:55 2 Smart Grid
Selected Stocks
4.1 Leading Stocks
Yuneng Holdings, related to electricity cooperation.
4.2 First Market Entry
Ningbo Construction, OpenClaw Concept.
4.3 First Topic
None.
4.4 Key Sectors and Core Targets
Buying Stocks
None.
Holding Positions
None.
Selling Stocks
(1) Meiliyun.
(2) Hangdian Shares.
Tomorrow’s Plan
8.1 Core Guidelines
(1) Keep the main line vague, do not insist on the leader; respect the cycle, adapt flexibly.
(2) Set the direction first, then choose entry points; control risk first, then seek profit.
(3) Lurk for rotation, strictly control mistakes; avoid chasing hype, prevent huge losses.
8.2 Today’s Stock Pool (Shun Na Shares)
8.3 Tomorrow’s Stock Pool (Ningbo Construction, Green Power Electricity)
8.4 Manage Positions
9 Mode Practice
9.1 Static Stock Selection
Pre-market stock selection must follow basic principles: “Prioritize recognizability,” “Prioritize core,” “Highness over strength,” “Favor new over old,” “Continuous boards over re-accumulation,” etc.
9.2 Timing Operations
Timing mainly focuses on sentiment during the main rise period, boldly increase positions; on days with major divergence the next day, generally funds will flow back, so watch for sentiment warming days to reduce positions and act. During decline phases, strictly avoid action; on strong divergence days or divergence days, do not act.
9.3 On-the-Spot Stock Picking
On-the-spot stock picking is a necessary supplement and correction to static selection, must follow principles: “Prioritize recognizability,” “Prioritize core,” “Price exceeds expectations,” “Opening exceeds expectations,” “First issuance抢第一,” “Good stocks all抢,” “Watch A, do A,” and adhere to “Patience, hit in one shot.”
(1) Prioritize recognizability.
(2) Prioritize core.
(3) Choose new over old.
(4) Choose high over low.
(5) Choose strong over weak.
(6) Choose high over strong.
(7) Prioritize exceeding expectations over below expectations.
9.4 Buying Stocks
Follow principles: “Prioritize recognizability,” “Prioritize core,” “Price exceeds expectations,” “Opening exceeds expectations,” “Good stocks waiting for板.”
Buying stocks is the implementation of trading plans; at low positions, the core must be “stronger for stronger” buy points; at high positions, practice “weak转强” buy points. An opening straight rise is a basic prerequisite for buying.
9.5 Holding Stocks
Holding stocks must meet principles: “Prioritize recognizability,” “Prioritize core,” “Price exceeds expectations,” “Opening exceeds expectations,” “Early stronghold.” The concept of early stronghold means closing涨停 before 10:00, with smooth intraday走势 and large封单; during trading, no炸板 after 10:00 and strong封单 at the end of the day. The core logic of holding is to gain high premium the next day; if violated, the basis for holding collapses.
9.6 Selling Stocks
Follow principles: “Sell if expectations are not met,” “Sell to avoid risk,” “Sell when weak转强,” “Sell when weak转弱.” Be prepared to sell in these situations:
(1) Bidding涨幅 less than yesterday or below market expectations.
(2) Opening drop over 3 points.
(3) First wave冲高 less than 3 points.
(4) First wave触板未封板 or near触板.
(5) Second wave冲高未突破第一波高点.
(6) Intraday回踩跌破均线, within 3 minutes cannot re-突破均线.
(7)炸板回落跌破7 points, within 3 minutes cannot recover.
(8)炸板回落跌破4 points, within 3 minutes cannot recover.
(9) Weak尾板.
(10) Chaos phase, failed upgrade stocks (excluding core), next day night排核.
(11) Chaos phase, core stocks断板, next day weak转强, third day night排核.
9.7 Error Correction
Selling prematurely is normal; the key challenge is overcoming psychological acceptance, requiring deliberate training. Follow “Disagreement转一致” principle: if disciplined to止盈 when炸板跌超7 points, but later due to index, sentiment, sector divergence,转一致, then decisively correct and buy back. Many find this difficult; fundamentally, it’s about overcoming psychological barriers.
9.8 Operation Reflection
(1) Difficult to distinguish between expectations exceeding and sudden冲天炮 intraday.
(2) Hard to differentiate between multiple封回 and炸板回落 intraday.
(3) Often sell at the lowest during low open and low decline.
(4) Often miss the bottom during high open and high decline.
(5) Usually sell at the mountain foot during low open and high rise, or at the top during high open and high rise.
10 Painful Lessons
(1) During decline, must clear all so-called leaders immediately; suppression is highly probable, catching the bottom is unlikely!!!
(2) During decline, all one-word爆发 are补涨, a wave of false prosperity deliberately created by funds; when leaders fall,补涨 is A杀, with no exceptions.
(3) Decline generally lasts 3 days, up to 5 days.
(4) During decline, at least keep 3 days of cash!
(5) Clearly distinguish between decline and strong divergence phases. During decline, leaders are suppressed without escape opportunities, and continue to跌停 the next day; the strongest补涨 may炸板回落, with some封板活口, but likely to补跌 the next day. During strong divergence, leaders fully换手断板, sometimes尾盘跌停, but the next day will弱转强, re-包, leading to a rebound.
(6) After decline, it’s chaos period, characterized by fan rotation; sectors like semiconductors (chips), smart grids, robotics, chemicals, precious metals,消费, commercial航天, AI applications, rotate daily with more than 2 sectors.
(7) Chaos period is a structural行情, showing “two good days, one bad day, two进 one退,” normal rotation. Hot sectors lack持续性, but core themes will repeatedly rebound, usually stopping at 4进5.
(8) Chaos is like打地鼠行情, strong today, follow today, cash out tomorrow; correct rhythm leads to bull market, wrong rhythm leads to bear market.
(9) Transition from chaos to strength has high success rate; from chaos to weakness, low success rate.
(10) Transition from decline to chaos requires a “freezing point” switch; similarly, from chaos to main rise also needs a “freezing point” switch. During freezing points, can do连续板高标, with high premium the next day.
(11) Ultra-short operations focus on today buy, tomorrow sell,弱留强, avoid左侧低吸, prefer weak转强,强更强.
(12) During chaos, reduce participation in 20cm stocks; eliminated stocks generally have跌跌风险.
(13) During chaos, stocks with 3板 or more (excluding core sectors), if failed today, next day night排核, do not expect miracles.
(14) After-hours重大利空 stocks, next day night排核, do not expect miracles.

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