Bitcoin awaits Santa Claus rally: a message from the autumn turbulence

The cryptocurrency market often teaches us that periods of weakness can precede a rebound in growth. Bitcoin has experienced significant fluctuations in recent months, but analysts indicate that this year’s Santa Claus rally — a seasonal phenomenon bringing gains in December — may still materialize. At the current level of $69,400, Bitcoin is trying to find solid ground, while investors watch for signs of a potential rebound supported by changing market sentiment.

From October’s crash to market stabilization

Although Bitcoin reached all-time highs early in the previous quarter, price momentum slowed, ending with a sharp decline as the month drew to a close. Since then, prices have entered a consolidation phase, and market participants have become interested in the possibility of a rebound before the year ends.

Historical data shows that six of the last eight December editions closed in positive territory, with gains ranging from 8% to 46%. This statistic is well known among active market players as one of the arguments for the Santa Claus rally — a phenomenon traditionally supported by lower trading activity and improving investor sentiment. The recent move toward the $106,000 level suggests that buyers are steadily returning to the market after an intense period of selling.

According to observers from LVRG Research, market participant behavior is evolving from panic selling to more strategic accumulation by long-term holders. Expectations of easing monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and increasing support from institutional investors are seen as potential catalysts for a strong year-end finish.

When could the Santa Claus rally gain momentum

The spot Bitcoin market shows signs of renewed interest. CryptoQuant analysts noted that around the weekend, a stable wave of buying began — the first such move since early October. This renewed engagement, supported by limited selling pressure, could translate into a traditional year-end rally. Holiday trading easing combined with restored market confidence has historically coincided with price increases during this time of year.

Investors are also analyzing new impulses that could support momentum. The potential US administration plan for a customs dividend — direct cash transfers to citizens — is viewed as a possible liquidity injection. SignalPlus experts point out that such real transfers resemble pandemic-era stimulus measures and could boost purchasing power for riskier assets, including Bitcoin. The initial price movement appears to reflect optimism around this potential stimulus.

What will drive volatility in the coming year

The pervasive volatility in the Bitcoin market is increasingly rooted in market structure and large capital movements rather than short-term speculation. SynFutures observers note that future price movements may remain volatile, primarily driven by institutional trading, derivatives market activity, and liquidity condition changes.

A key indicator remains the global capital availability — Bitcoin’s correlation with Fed liquidity indicators (mainly the Fed balance sheet and M2 money supply) remains historically around 0.6-0.7. Slowing or reversing the easing trend in response to inflationary effects of tariffs could increase turbulence in the coming year.

Interesting on-chain data shows that smaller investors continue to accumulate Bitcoin despite a 3% decline in November, preceding the volatile October. Meanwhile, large holders — those with over 10,000 BTC — are gradually reducing holdings built during early inflows into ETFs. Smaller wallets below 1,000 BTC, on the other hand, are increasing their positions, creating a balance against selling pressure from larger players.

Outlook: Santa Claus rally and the multiplier effect

Although the seasonal December rally is an empirically confirmed pattern, this year’s forecasts suggest the cycle could repeat. If Bitcoin begins to rise, the effect may spill over into altcoins, fueled by seasonal trends, renewed investor confidence, and continued accumulation by long-term holders. However, all these scenarios remain speculative — recent single-day declines demonstrate how volatile the directions of movement can be.