Bitcoin experiences two surges: this week's verdict at $68,300

Bitcoin continues to navigate turbulent waters, with the price fluctuating around $69,460 as the analyst community debates which acceleration will prevail: upward toward new highs or downward toward further declines. The next weekly close could serve as a crucial turning point in determining the market’s direction in the coming months. With the Mayer Multiple indicating rare undervaluation levels in Bitcoin’s history, the current moment encompasses both significant risks and potential opportunities.

The critical resistance that decides the trend’s fate

BTC’s price has stabilized around $67,000 for two consecutive days, trapped between two major technical hurdles. The first is the old 2021 high of $69,000, a level that bulls have struggled to decisively break. The second, even more critical, is the 200-week exponential moving average, currently around $68,300.

According to analyst Rekt Capital, this second level marks the boundary between stability and a bearish acceleration. If Bitcoin closes the week below $68,300 and then tests this level from above again, historical data suggests discouraging scenarios. When the price has previously been rejected by the 200-week EMA, it has triggered significant and prolonged downward movements.

The 200-week simple moving average acts as a secondary support layer, forming a zone of accumulation together with the EMA that the price has so far protected. However, last week’s dip below $60,000 demonstrated that no support is eternal, making the current situation particularly delicate.

When the past teaches: precedents of a bearish acceleration

Bitcoin’s history offers important lessons on what happens when the price is rejected at key technical levels. Analysts who experienced the 2022 bear market recognize the current pattern: rejection from all-time highs, repeated tests of key moving averages, followed by an ongoing downward acceleration lasting weeks or months.

Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, recalled that current Mayer Multiple levels (below 0.6x) have rarely been seen in Bitcoin’s history. The last time the price exhibited this combination was during the 2022 bear market, and even earlier during previous downturn cycles. Those periods were followed by further price declines, though historically they also represented some of the best entry points for long-term believers.

The question analysts ask is not whether Bitcoin can fall further, but how long the downward acceleration will last before exhaustion. Historical data suggests this phase can endure for weeks or months but will inevitably reach a bottom from which re-accumulation begins.

Mayer Multiple signals “undervaluation”: accumulation signals

Despite fears of further downward acceleration, William Clemente of Styx identified reassuring long-term signals. The Mayer Multiple, which measures the distance of the price from the 200-day moving average, has historically been one of the best global indicators for identifying market bottoms.

Economist Frank Fetter emphasized how extraordinary the current value is: only 5.3% of days in Bitcoin’s history have seen the Mayer Multiple at such low levels. This means that, statistically, the price falls into extremely rare undervaluation periods. When the Mayer Multiple drops below 0.8, the likelihood of long-term positive returns increases significantly.

Additionally, when the value rises above 2.4, analysts traditionally advise caution, suggesting the price is already exuberant. The combination of a low Mayer Multiple and the 200-week moving average acting as resistance creates a paradoxical scenario: high short-term downside risk but extraordinary accumulation potential for long-term investors.

This week’s verdict: what happens now

The weekly close will be the moment of truth. If Bitcoin manages to close above $68,300, the 200-week moving average will continue to serve as support, reducing the risk of a downward acceleration. Conversely, if the price closes below, a subsequent test of this level as new resistance could trigger the negative pattern analysts fear.

However, regardless of upcoming volatility, long-term technical data continue to indicate that Bitcoin is in a phase of statistically evident undervaluation. Many experienced analysts see the current situation as an accumulation opportunity, despite the short-term risk of a downward acceleration before reaching the final bottom.

The market remains in suspense: two forces in tension that will decide Bitcoin’s next chapter.