Just now, a collective plunge! Oman, breaking news! The CTA shockwave is coming

The ripple effects of rising oil prices are still unfolding!

Early Asia-Pacific trading saw Brent crude futures extend gains, reaching a high of $101.59 per barrel during the session, a 10% intraday increase. Reports indicate that Oman is evacuating ships from the Mina Al-Fahal oil terminal. The port agency’s notice states that the evacuation is a precautionary measure.

Affected by the sharp rebound in high oil prices, Asia-Pacific stock markets collectively declined. By the early close, the Nikkei 225 index fell 1.5%, and the Topix index dropped 1.6%. The Korean stock index, which had briefly turned positive in the morning, also fell more than 1%. Hong Kong markets rose briefly then pulled back. European stock futures declined, with the Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 1.1%, and Germany’s DAX futures down over 1.2%.

Widespread decline

This morning, international oil prices surged past $100 again. Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent/WTI crude prices at $71/$67 per barrel in Q4 2026, up from previous estimates of $66/$62. As oil prices spike, global stock indices also plummeted.

The Nikkei 225 closed down 1.5% this morning, and the Topix fell 1.6%. Vietnam’s VN Index dropped 1% to 1710.59 points. The Philippines stock index declined 1% to 6094.64 points. The Hang Seng Index fell more than 1% in early trading, and the Hang Seng Tech Index also dropped over 1%. Tencent Music, Bilibili, and SenseTime each fell more than 3%.

European stock futures generally declined, with the Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 1.1%, and Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC40 futures each down over 1.2%. U.S. stock index futures also fell more than 1%, with the US2000 nearly down 2.5%.

JPMorgan strategists said hedge funds are experiencing their largest drawdown since the market turmoil triggered by tariffs in April 2025, as short-covering in crowded trades hits these quick-profit funds. The report notes that since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict, CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) and other quantitative funds have faced their worst losses in nearly a year. Equity long-short hedge funds, which are overweight in European and Korean markets and underweight in software stocks, have also suffered significant losses. Reports indicate that some of the world’s largest hedge funds, including Balyasny Asset Management, Castle, and Millennium Management, posted losses last week.

Currently, the market’s biggest concern is the long-term escalation of Middle East conflicts. If this occurs, asset pricing logic will inevitably change. Galaxy Securities believes that traditional valuation models consider US Treasuries, the US dollar, and core US stocks as “safe assets,” but if the conflict persists, rising energy costs, weakening US fiscal constraints, and damaged strategic credit will shake this system. Gold, energy assets, non-dollar currencies, and markets with supply chain resilience and geopolitical stability (such as China) may gain new premiums.

Oman makes a major announcement

This morning, oil prices suddenly surged again, breaking above $100, possibly related to the latest news from Oman.

According to individuals directly notified by port agents, Oman has evacuated all ships from the key oil export terminal—Mina Al-Fahal port—as a precaution. Fahal port, located outside the Strait of Hormuz, is one of the few ports still capable of exporting Middle Eastern crude to global markets. However, attacks in the region have made nearby waters unsafe. Data intelligence firm Kpler reports that Fahal port exports about 1 million barrels of Omani crude daily. Similarly, the UAE’s Fujairah port, also outside the strait, continues loading operations, but some shipowners are avoiding the port due to attack risks. Yemen’s port of Yambu on the Red Sea coast remains capable of exporting oil.

Additionally, although U.S. President Trump claimed that the war would end soon, tensions in the Middle East remain unresolved. The Israel Defense Forces issued a statement early on the 12th, saying they detected a new round of missile launches from Iran, with the air defense system intercepting them. This was the second time that day Israel reported monitoring Iranian missile launches. According to Xinhua, citing The Times of Israel, the IDF’s Home Front Command stated that due to attacks from Iran and Hezbollah, the situation is expected to become more “difficult” in the coming days, and current civil defense measures will likely last until at least the 14th.

Furthermore, it’s noteworthy that despite the International Energy Agency (IEA) releasing the largest-ever emergency oil reserves, oil prices continue to surge. This seems inconsistent with market expectations. Some analysts believe that, on one hand, this emergency release during the Iran conflict is still insufficient to offset the impact of nearly halted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, production disruptions in the Persian Gulf, and low oil inventories. On the other hand, this decision may backfire by fueling expectations that the conflict will drag on for a long time.