Gold prices fluctuate at high levels, and supply of investment-grade physical gold products is tight

Our reporter Peng Yan

Currently, gold consumption and investment demand continue to rise.

On March 6, reporters visited several jewelry stores and found that although gold prices are currently high, investment gold bars are selling rapidly, with small weights of 10 grams to 20 grams becoming the main choice in the market.

In response to the popularity of offline jewelry stores, some bank channels’ investment gold bars are also beginning to experience supply shortages. Recently, many banks’ online and offline channels’ physical gold bars for investment are generally listed as “temporarily out of stock” or “sold out.”

Login to several banks’ apps and found that some banks’ various investment physical gold products all show “temporarily out of stock” or “sold out.” Among them, the China Industrial and Commercial Bank’s app Precious Metals Investment section shows that its core product, “Ruyi Gold Bar,” is “out of stock.” This product is Au999.9 physical gold issued by ICBC, available in six specifications from 5 grams to 200 grams, with total sales exceeding 1.92 million sets. The Agricultural Bank of China’s app also shows “out of stock” for its investment gold bars.

“Recently, there has been a noticeable increase in gold buyers, mainly long-term investors. Small-weight investment gold products are in high demand,” said a bank branch wealth manager. He told reporters that currently, physical gold and accumulated gold are the main ways for investors to participate. Amid increased gold price volatility, he advised investors to choose investment methods rationally and control risks properly.

Another bank branch wealth manager also said that recently, the branch has almost no physical gold inventory, mainly because of surging demand from investors. “Currently, all spot gold at the branch needs to be transported from the head office, and there is basically no stock available for direct purchase,” he said.

Recently, international gold prices have become more volatile, maintaining a high-level oscillation pattern. On March 2, spot gold surged to $5,400 per ounce during trading, and on the evening of March 3, it briefly fell below $5,000 per ounce. As of press time on March 6, spot gold rebounded to $5,116.88 per ounce.

Qu Rui, Senior Deputy Director of the Research and Development Department at Orient Securities, told Securities Daily that in the short term, gold prices are expected to remain volatile at high levels, mainly because the risk of further escalation of geopolitical conflicts still exists, which will provide upward momentum for gold prices. In the medium to long term, the reconstruction of the international monetary order has become a main theme for global assets. Under the background of the US dollar’s credibility being damaged and increasing US fiscal risks, the Fed’s continued rate cuts will further reduce the opportunity cost of holding interest-free gold. Meanwhile, global central banks’ demand for gold remains high, and their strategic gold purchases, along with the deepening trend of de-dollarization, resonate to strengthen the foundation for long-term gold price increases.

Many institutions are optimistic about the medium- and long-term performance of gold prices. Cinda Futures states that it is advisable to wait and see in the short term, while there is potential for upward movement in medium to long-term gold prices, suggesting buying on dips. Huaxi Securities predicts that by 2026, gold prices could increase by 10% to 35%.

In the face of rapid gold price fluctuations and market rushes, industry experts remind that gold has both commodity and financial attributes. High volatility increases price risks, so investors should participate rationally, avoid blindly chasing highs, and implement risk management and asset allocation strategies.

Xue Hongyan, a special researcher at Suzhou Commercial Bank, told Securities Daily that current gold investment requires caution due to multiple risks: first, price volatility risk—gold has experienced deep and sustained declines in history, and short-term chasing highs may face high-level corrections; second, liquidity risk—extreme market conditions may restrict trading in some channels; third, as a non-interest-bearing asset, gold plays a greater role in hedging and diversification in asset portfolios, and over-reliance on price spreads for profit is uncertain.

He advised investors to adhere to a medium- and long-term allocation mindset rather than short-term speculation, view gold as a stabilizer in their asset portfolio, carefully assess their risk tolerance, avoid blindly chasing gains or selling in panic, and adopt a phased, diversified, and balanced approach to allocation, closely monitor market changes, and manage positions timely.