[Hong Kong Stock Analysis] Hang Seng Index drops over 300 points; AI lobster concept stocks continue to retreat. Analysis: "Lobster" monthly active users are rising sharply, and the hype is not over yet.

Iran’s ongoing conflict continues to trouble Hong Kong stocks. The Hang Seng Index opened 179 points lower and once fell more than 300 points. The Tech Index also dropped over 1%. Tang Ming Capital director Zeng Qibang pointed out that trading volume during recent sharp declines in Hong Kong stocks was significantly higher than during rebounds, indicating investors are not eager to buy the dip or chase prices, which limits the market’s performance.

The Hang Seng Index is forming a small double bottom around 25,000 points and has created a four-bottom pattern since October last year. Zeng Qibang mentioned in our video program that the index is testing the 25,000 level for the fourth time. Unlike previous tests, multiple moving averages are now pressing down from above. A further drop below this level could lead to a larger decline. He recommends a “Pair Trade” strategy—buying strong stocks and shorting weak stocks to control risk.

Analysis suggests AI lobster concept stocks are not done rising

Known as “lobster,” the AI agent OpenClaw recently sparked a frenzy. Mainland China authorities issued risk warnings one after another. On Thursday morning, AI lobster concept stocks initially rose then fell back. Tencent (00700) and MINIMAX (00100) declined over 1%, while Zhipu (02513) dropped more than 5%. Zeng Qibang noted that the “lobster” has seen a sharp increase in monthly active users, with downloads surpassing the 30-year total of another open-source operating system, Linux. “There are definitely many users, and the performance is very good, so I think this trend isn’t over yet. I also use OpenClaw myself—its capabilities are huge, really amazing.”

Zeng Qibang summarized three key features of “lobster”: strong memory that can record user habits over the long term; versatile skills capable of handling various document and creative tasks; and multiple model options, such as MiniMax, Zhipu, or Google’s large models, with varying levels of intelligence and prices. He believes that as users spend more time with these tools, their dependence increases, and their willingness to continue subscribing remains strong.

He stated that high-cost-performance AI models have lasting appeal. Among concept stocks, MiniMax and Zhipu are top choices due to their affordability and good performance. Recent stock price increases are justified. While current prices are not particularly cheap, the hype is not over yet. Corporate users have not fully participated, so there is still potential for growth. He suggests waiting for a pullback to buy in stages. For Zhipu, watch the 536 yuan support level, and for MINIMAX, monitor levels near the ten-day moving average.