2025 Report Card Released! Lin Yuan Lost Money, but Bin and Liang Hong Are "Behind"

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The latest performance data for private equity funds over 10 billion yuan in 2025 has been released. According to Private Equity Ranking Network, the average return for these funds in 2025 was 32.77%. Among them, quantitative giants performed remarkably well, with an average return exceeding 37%. Subjective private equity funds performed slightly worse during the same period, with significant internal differences; the top performers’ returns were nearly 80 percentage points higher, and Lin Yuan Investment even posted a negative average performance in 2025.

Looking ahead to 2026, several industry insiders believe that as market confidence continues to recover, trading volume remains high, and China’s leading industries demonstrate global competitiveness, both subjective and quantitative private equity funds are expected to further showcase their profitability.

Quantitative Giants Lead in Performance

According to Private Equity Ranking Network, 75 private equity funds over 10 billion yuan that reported results in 2025 achieved an average return of 32.77%, with 74 of them posting positive returns, accounting for 98.67%.

By strategy, quantitative private equity funds stand out as “the most attractive.” Data shows that the 2025 average return for 2025’s reporting quantitative private equity funds over 10 billion yuan was 37.61%, with all achieving positive returns. In terms of return distribution, four funds had returns within 20%, 34 funds ranged from 20% to 49.99%, and seven funds exceeded 50% in 2025.

Some well-known private equity funds lag behind

In comparison, subjective private equity funds performed slightly worse in 2025. Data indicates that the average return for 2025’s reporting subjective private equity funds over 10 billion yuan was 25.8%, with 22 funds achieving positive returns, making up 95.65%. Among these, 12 funds had returns within 20%, 6 funds ranged from 20% to 49.99%, and 4 funds exceeded 50%.

Specifically, several renowned private equity funds over 10 billion yuan underperformed in 2025.

According to third-party platform data, Lin Yuan Investment’s average return in 2025 was only -6.46%. Similarly, Dongfang Harbor managed by Bi Bin and Shiva Private Equity led by Liang Hong both posted average performances below 15%, ranking lower among subjective private equity funds.

In fact, Lin Yuan publicly stated in an interview last year that their performance in the first quarter was temporarily below the benchmark mainly because of short-term declines in holdings, not due to issues with industry allocation or stock selection. “Baijiu is a consumer product that brings happiness, while tech stocks are hard to value, so we don’t actively invest in them.”

In November last year, Shiva Private Equity’s products experienced significant net value declines. Liang Hong explained that most of their funds had a maximum drawdown of about 20%, mainly due to declines in heavy holdings of innovative drug stocks, hardware giants, and investments in stablecoins in U.S. stocks.

A private equity founder in Shanghai told reporters that in 2025, the market was highly active, with growth-style funds outperforming, while some traditional blue-chip stocks experienced volatility and sector rotation accelerated. As a result, the advantages of quantitative strategies became more apparent, and performance among subjective private equity funds was highly differentiated.

Profitability in 2026 Worth Expecting

Despite increasing differentiation, many leading institutions believe that the profit-making effect of funds is likely to further emerge in 2026.

Lu Hang, Chairman of Fusheng Asset, told reporters that opportunities in the capital market will be significant in 2026. On one hand, the economy is gradually stabilizing, with many signs of marginal improvement boosting investor confidence, and corporate profits beginning to recover. On the other hand, domestic technological innovation continues to show results, and AI technology is reshaping traditional industries. The company will focus on opportunities in new consumer sectors related to “AI+” and new types of consumer products, non-ferrous metals, and some traditional midstream industries like chemicals.

Mengxi Investment also analyzed in an interview that the overall strong performance of quantitative strategies in 2025 was driven by a warming risk appetite, with small-cap indices like CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 performing strongly, along with accelerated technological and strategic iteration in the domestic quantitative private equity industry. Looking ahead to 2026, the frequency and magnitude of market style shifts may increase, and industry technology and strategy updates will further accelerate. The factors supporting quantitative strategies remain, and profit-making potential is expected to continue.

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Editor: Ling Chen