0312 Bitcoin Daily Report#原油价格上涨

Due to growing concerns over energy shocks in the market, two cruise ships were attacked yesterday, causing oil prices to rise back to $100. In the Asian trading session, Bitcoin weakened in the early hours, dropping as much as 2%, and is currently trading below $70,000.

The recent two-week trend has been consistent: positive news pushes Bitcoin higher from $71,000 to $74,000; negative news drags it down from $68,000 to $66,000, resulting in a net change close to zero. Data shows that the amount of supply in floating loss continues to increase, so every rebound is met with Bitcoin holders hoping to exit. However, compared to other assets, Bitcoin has shown resilience since the geopolitical events, maintaining overall stability. Analysts point out that the $70,000 level may see some profit-taking, leading to a consolidation phase. Due to the uncertain macro environment, oil price fluctuations, and geopolitical tensions, short-term risk appetite remains cautious.

Derivatives trading head revealed that the funding rate for Bitcoin is currently negative, with an average of about 10 months of continuous negative funding. This phenomenon may indicate higher forward returns over a longer time horizon. Additionally, whales have been continuously increasing their holdings in the $60,000+ range. Overall, the conditions for a short-term rebound and correction are more favorable, but this does not necessarily indicate a one-time trend reversal upward.