Morgan Stanley: Limited Revenue Impact for Mastercard and Visa from Middle East Tourism

2026-03-12 13:36:56

Investing.com - Morgan Stanley estimates that Mastercard and Visa have minimal exposure to tourism in the Middle East, with each company’s net income exposure in the region accounting for about 1-2% of total revenue.

According to Morgan Stanley’s analysis, the region accounts for 9% of global international travel spending, 6.6% of international tourist arrivals, and 5% of U.S. outbound travel.

Morgan Stanley estimates that 60% of cross-border revenue for Mastercard and Visa is related to international travel, while 40% comes from e-commerce. Applying the 9% Middle East share to their 2026 cross-border revenue forecasts, Mastercard’s net income exposure is approximately 1.9%, and Visa’s is about 1.8%.

The firm notes that these figures may overstate actual exposure because Mastercard and Visa’s travel business portfolios are primarily U.S.-centric. If only 5% of outbound travel from the U.S. to the Middle East is considered, Mastercard’s total revenue exposure would decrease to 1.1%, and Visa’s to 1%.

Morgan Stanley expects that any slowdown in this small portion of revenue will be offset by cost adjustments, citing the flexibility of these payment networks’ fee structures.

The firm is monitoring broader disruptions related to conflicts, weather, and partial government shutdowns that could pose risks. It also notes that price increases are a favorable factor.

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