Tesla Stock (TSLA) Is Down 18% YTD, Here’s Why Wall Street Is Divided on the EV Giant

Tesla TSLA -3.24% ▼ stock has declined more than 18% year-to-date. Currently, Wall Street is divided on TSLA stock and sees modest upside from current levels. While critics are pointing out two consecutive years of decline in the electric vehicle (EV) maker’s deliveries, bulls are optimistic about the growth prospects of its robotaxi, energy business, and the Optimus humanoid robot. Let’s discuss the opinions of some of the analysts on TSLA stock.

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Analysts Have Mixed Views on Tesla Stock

On Thursday, Baird analyst Ben Kallo reiterated a Buy rating on Tesla stock. Kallo noted the pullback in TSLA stock over the last month amid a challenging market backdrop and several headlines regarding developments at CEO Elon Musk’s other companies. Kallo believes that Tesla is entering a “pivotal time” over the next 18 months as it ramps its robotaxi service with the upcoming rollout of Cybercab and boosts mass production of its Optimus humanoid. The analyst prefers to own Tesla stock during this key period.

Meanwhile, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has escalated its preliminary investigation into Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) tech to a comprehensive engineering analysis (EA). Reacting to the news, GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson, who has a Sell rating on TSLA stock, said, “The Event — Yes, This Is a Big Deal.” Johnson noted that the EA, which covers an estimated 2,410,002 Tesla vehicles, is not a warning but rather the penultimate step in NHTSA’s defect-determination process.

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Johnson highlighted that the bull case for Tesla is built on its autonomous driving optionality, which is based on “regulatory tolerance” for its FSD tech. He believes that the EA escalation indicates that such tolerance is being withdrawn. “A forced recall on FSD does not slow the robotaxi story. It ends it,” cautioned Johnson.

Also, UBS analyst Joseph Spak reiterated a Sell rating on Tesla stock with a price target of $352. The analyst expects Tesla to report an 18% year-over-year decline in its Q1 2026 deliveries. Spak agrees that TSLA’s stock performance is increasingly driven by AI-related initiatives such as robotaxi and Optimus rather than the auto business. That said, Spak pointed out that the core auto business remains crucial for funding growth investments, including about $20 billion in planned capital spending in 2026.

Is Tesla Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Overall, Wall Street is sidelined on Tesla stock, with a Hold consensus rating based on 13 Buys, 11 Holds, and seven Sell recommendations. The average TSLA stock price target of $399.25 indicates 8.5% upside potential.

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