Wen Chengkai: 3.24 Gold Rushes Higher, Long-Short Clash Faces Dilemma, Latest Price Movement Analysis

On Tuesday during the Asian trading session, international gold showed a “rise then fall” volatile pattern. After rebounding from lows the previous trading day, gold prices faced renewed downward pressure. The selling pressure on the market was not clearly released, highlighting the intense battle between bulls and bears. The core contradiction in the current gold market lies in the structural opposition between “rate suppression” and “safe-haven support.” The ongoing struggle between these two factors has led to increased price volatility and unclear direction.

Suppression Logic: Rising Rate Expectations Reduce Gold’s Investment Value
Reversal of Federal Reserve Policy Expectations: Due to inflation concerns triggered by rising oil prices from Middle East conflicts, the market has largely dismissed the possibility of a rate cut by the Fed in 2026 and has even begun to bet on rate hikes. Swap market data shows that traders’ bets on a rate hike before the end of the year have increased to 20 basis points, with the probability rising from 21% to 27%. However, it’s important to note that there are policy disagreements within the Fed. Board member Stephen Mullan explicitly stated that there is no need to consider a rate hike, maintaining expectations of four rate cuts within the year. Major financial institutions also believe the likelihood of a rate hike this year is limited.

U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen: Expectations of rate hikes have driven the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to continue rising, briefly surpassing 4.423%, reaching a new high since July 2025. The attractiveness of dollar assets has also increased, while gold, as a typical zero-yield asset, faces sharply rising opportunity costs in a high-interest-rate environment. Funds continue to flow from precious metals into U.S. Treasuries and dollar-denominated assets.

This creates a clear transmission chain: “Oil prices rise → Inflation heats up → Rate hike expectations increase → Gold comes under pressure.”

Support Logic: Geopolitical Risks Drive Safe-Haven Demand to Support Prices
The ongoing escalation and repeated developments of the Middle East conflict remain the key variables influencing gold’s trend, providing a bottom-line support for gold prices. Former U.S. President Trump previously sent positive signals about a possible agreement with Iran, temporarily easing market panic; however, Iran quickly denied this, stating the conflict will continue until full compensation is achieved. Such official disagreements further increase market uncertainty. Notably, the Strait of Hormuz, as the “artery” of global energy, always faces shipping risks. Any escalation could trigger a global energy supply crisis, which limits the downside potential of gold and prevents it from falling into a one-sided large decline.

Technical Deep-Dive: The Medium-Term Downtrend in Gold Remains Unchanged, Focus on Key Zone 4100-4500
Daily Chart: The daily chart shows that gold remains in a medium-term downtrend. Previously, prices effectively broke below the 100-day moving average, signaling a weakening trend and establishing a bearish dominance. The 200-day moving average near $4,100 is the most important medium-term support, acting as a dividing line between bulls and bears. Although prices have rebounded above this support, the upward momentum is weak. Key resistance is at $4,530; if prices can hold above this level, the rebound could extend toward $4,700. Short-term support is at $4,300; if this support is broken, prices are likely to test the $4,100 support again.

Indicators show: MACD is below zero and the green bars are expanding, indicating strengthening bearish momentum. The KDJ is near 20 in oversold territory, suggesting a short-term technical rebound may occur, but the overall weak trend remains.

4-Hour Chart: Gold shows a clear oscillating and bearish structure. Short-term moving averages are arranged in a bearish order, with multiple rebounds blocked at moving average levels, indicating weak bullish attempts. Resistance is concentrated between $4,500 and $4,540, the core area of short-term bulls and bears fighting. Without a clear breakout, the market is likely to continue weak oscillation. Support levels are at $4,300 and $4,100; breaking these would open further downside space. MACD remains in negative territory, indicating the short-term downtrend is still ongoing, but caution is needed as oversold conditions could trigger technical rebounds.

Overall View: Gold is currently in a “medium-term downtrend + short-term oversold rebound” phase:
The daily downtrend remains intact, with $4,100 as the key dividing line for the medium-term trend. The 4-hour chart maintains a oscillating and bearish structure, with limited rebound potential. The overall outlook suggests that until the $4,500 resistance is convincingly broken, gold will mainly fluctuate weakly, with short-term movements oscillating between oversold rebounds and continued declines.

For traders, key focus should be on the effectiveness of the $4,100 support and the breakout of the $4,500 resistance. In extreme volatility environments, rational position management is essential—avoid blindly chasing rallies or panicking during declines, and be alert to potential reversals.