Geopolitical Conflicts Reshape Valuation Logic: Peers Face Margin Pressure as Costs Surge, Wankay New Materials Poised for Full Release of Profit Elasticity

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy “throat” carrying nearly 20% of global oil trade, has once again become a market focus due to the ongoing escalation of Middle East tensions. Institutions warn that any disruption to this shipping route could cause unprecedented shocks to the global energy supply chain. Amid rising energy security expectations and sustained high international oil prices, chemical product prices are entering a phase of comprehensive revaluation. In this geopolitical crisis-driven market cycle, the market logic has shifted significantly: the first to show resilience and explosive growth are not upstream petrochemical raw materials, but the midstream PET bottle chip segment. For Wankai New Materials (301216.SZ), this crisis is not a cost pressure but a catalyst for fully releasing profit elasticity.

Looking back at the start of this market cycle, if we measure from the US-Iran conflict and the subsequent escalation of the Hormuz crisis, the stock price gains in energy and chemical sectors are remarkable. The core driver behind this is the rise in oil prices, which increases polyester production costs, prompting downstream companies to stockpile in advance out of panic, ultimately causing PET bottle chip prices to exhibit the greatest price elasticity. Since March, the PET bottle chip market has experienced an unprecedented rapid rise. Mainstream spot prices have broken through 9,000 yuan/ton, with several industry leaders continuously raising quotes, with monthly increases exceeding 40%. Futures markets have been even more volatile, with the main PR contract surging to 9,282 yuan/ton intraday on March 16, and market sentiment indices reaching extremely optimistic levels.

Typically, rising oil prices lead to increased raw material costs for chemical companies, squeezing profit margins. However, Wankai New Materials has demonstrated unique risk resistance and profit advantages in this cycle, primarily due to differences in raw material structure and forward-looking inventory strategies. Unlike many peers relying on liquid petroleum derivatives as raw materials, Wankai’s raw materials are mainly gases. Amid the oil supply tightness caused by the Hormuz crisis and soaring liquid raw material prices, the cost advantage of gas-based routes is greatly amplified. Additionally, Wankai maintains ample raw material inventories, providing a strong safety cushion during periods of volatile raw material prices. While competitors face high spot procurement costs and significant cost transfer pressures, Wankai benefits from low-cost inventories and stable gas supplies, effectively avoiding rapid cost increases and even enjoying greater profit margins as product prices rise sharply with the market.

This relative stability on the cost side combined with rapid sales price increases directly expands Wankai’s profit margins. Compared to peers burdened by soaring liquid raw material costs and struggling to pass on price increases, Wankai’s lower cost transfer pressure allows it to more easily convert upstream price hikes into real net profits. From a stock performance perspective, since the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, Wankai’s stock price has also risen significantly, with a cumulative increase of 19.06% from February 13, the date of the conflict escalation, to March 18.

It is worth noting that the current PET bottle chip price surge is not driven by a single factor. Besides the cost push and supply contraction resonance, traditional seasonal demand also plays an important role. Starting in March, the beverage consumption stocking season has provided demand support and a time buffer for the current high prices. Downstream beverage manufacturers stockpile in preparation for the upcoming summer consumption peak, maintaining strong demand for PET bottle chips.

Objectively, the Hormuz crisis is not just a short-term price fluctuation but a stress test for the resilience of the chemical supply chain. In this test, Wankai’s differentiated raw material route and robust inventory management have successfully turned external “danger” into an internal “opportunity.” Although high international oil prices have raised the industry’s average costs, they have also accelerated the industry’s natural selection. For companies with single raw material structures, fast inventory turnover, and limited bargaining power, high oil prices are a heavy burden; but for companies like Wankai with gas-based advantages and scale effects, high oil prices are a catalyst for profit explosion. Currently, PET processing fees have reached a historic high of 1,463 yuan/ton, indicating that downstream acceptance of bottle chip prices exceeds expectations, and market demand shows strong resilience driven by inflation expectations and stocking needs.

In summary, the energy market triggered by the Hormuz crisis is essentially a deep restructuring of chemical companies’ cost structures and profit models. Wankai’s performance in this cycle is not coincidental but a natural result of its long-term diversification of raw materials and meticulous inventory management under extreme market conditions. As geopolitical tensions continue to evolve, high energy prices may become the norm. Companies like Wankai, with low-cost gas routes and ample raw material reserves, are likely to continue releasing profit elasticity and consolidating their leading position in the PET bottle chip industry.