Rebirth Precognition: I Saw Through the Final Outcome of the US-Iran War

When market sentiment is at its most panicked and your faith is crumbling, I tend to talk more, say more, and keep you company more; [Taogu Ba]

When emotions start to warm up and it becomes easier, I speak less;

Give more snow to send coal, less embellishment.

Before the horse runs: this morning’s [Yuanbao Morning Market] was summarized in one sentence:

Today, look for a rebound, no need to watch volume now; wait until Wednesday to observe volume. There may be selling pressure at first, but I guess there will be a second chance for strength during the session. Unless the worst-case scenario occurs, no need to give up chips.

I randomly picked a minute chart to represent most stocks’ movements today: selling pressure—support—strengthening. Conclusion: do not give up chips.

During the main upward phase, after a negative news gap-down, there is an inertia-driven rebound, but with decreasing volume and no new highs, which is generally understood as a phase top.

Looking back now, the same logic applies. So today’s gap-up due to positive news was expected to be cashed out, mainly watching for whether there will be a second support during the session.

If we consider the index as a leading stock, be cautious of “leading” stocks forming double tops or a second wave. Usually, a phase top signal for a leader is a volume-driven upper shadow.

Gap-up cashing out, then a second strength, is basically consistent with what I said in the morning. The rebound space for the index is temporarily around 4000 points. Tomorrow, it’s best to add some volume. If later it cannot break through 4000, consider a high sell-off.

Many foolish little ones are still obsessing over volume. I already concluded this morning that the volume of both markets is what to watch tomorrow, not today. I emphasized many times today to look at the index in reverse—you’ll see more clearly.

Imagine the decline as an increase, and it becomes much easier to understand. Reversing the perspective, yesterday was an acceleration phase, and today no one wants to support acceleration, so it’s a day of sideways volume contraction. But tomorrow, some will choose to exit, i.e., sell, which is a divergence expectation of explosive volume.

Therefore, volume is the key to tomorrow’s trend, not today.

What’s next? Let’s start with the mid-term view;

I mentioned on Sunday that even if last week broke below the 20-week moving average, the mid-term upward pattern remains unchanged. If you see 924 at 2689 points as the start of this bull market, then 2689 to 3674 points is the first wave;

After six months of sideways consolidation, the second wave correction was at 3040 points on April 7. If you assume 4197 is the high of the third wave, then as long as the fourth wave correction does not effectively break below 3674, the trend remains intact;

Then, proceed to the fifth wave, as shown in the chart below:

Wave theory is a thousand people, a thousand waves—almost always based on known conditions projected forward. Use it as a reference; otherwise, you’ll get lost in the waves.

Now, for the short-term view, the content I mentioned on Sunday night remains unchanged:

After a rapid decline, Monday’s candlestick will diverge from the 5-day moving average, similar to the 3816 low in 2025. After the moving average is thoroughly broken, a rebound is likely to occur, and this rebound to the 5-day moving average will probably be seen tomorrow. That’s one point.

Assuming 3794 is the bottom of this round of adjustment, i.e., the left foot, it can be called the policy bottom. After sideways movement, a second leg will appear, which is the market bottom. It’s also possible that the low of 3794 on the left side will be broken again, referencing the Russia-Ukraine trend. That’s the second point. The reason for not referencing April 7 is that it was a very rapid opening plunge, whereas this round is a slow bleed, meaning a V-shaped move is unlikely, especially with geopolitical uncertainties still recurring.

4197 is the peak, with a divergence structure appearing on the daily chart again. Currently, 16 trading days of decline have occurred, and the space is roughly in place, but the duration of the decline is not enough—that’s the third point.

Popular stocks with high popularity:

Although the group is no longer active, the emperor pattern left by the group is still being imitated and has never been surpassed;

HuaDian LiaoNeng, surpassing YuNeng’s height, corresponds to an electricity boom. Following ShunNa, JinKai XinNeng once again targets the emperor pattern. Tomorrow’s anchor naturally falls on HuaDian LiaoNeng. If successful, great; if not, the focus shifts to the next stage, which is likely to be a short-term favorite.

Next are Liaoning Energy + Zhejiang New Energy, both with the character “energy.” The former’s order block is 4.57 billion, and if it ferments tonight, a large single order is expected to meet expectations.

I guess how the teachers will hype it: if HuaDian LiaoNeng is aerospace development, then HuaDian Energy is aerospace propulsion, Liaoning Energy is aerospace technology, and so on.

MeiliYun, many brothers asked in the comments. Yesterday’s market plunged sharply. If Meili had no recognition, it should have been a good opportunity to fill the gap. But yesterday’s minute chart was very obvious—funds did not leave, so it can be seen as weak or not. Today, the theme was again dominated by electric power, and a pullback after hitting the limit is understandable. Tonight, just watch how the so-called word element fermentation develops.

Some brothers still follow the old emotional cycle: after opening weak today, they immediately cut losses underwater, then strongly rebound to hit the limit, and buy back to correct. They want to gamble on the turning point at this warming environment. The old emotional cycle theory isn’t invalid, but the success rate is lower than before because it’s now embedded in algorithms.

Macro forecast:

In a novel hero’s story, I’ll guess the final outcome of this war: “The blond guy unilaterally announces that the US has achieved victory, the Strait of Hormuz—do you love it or not? I’ll wash my hands of it, but I’ve secured victory, and the US becomes great again because of me!”

But in reality, it’s a loss of both soldiers and territory. We’ll see how it ends. I guess the final result will be like this: he’s exhausted, but so is everyone else. He keeps fighting, swallowing the bitter pill, but can other countries do the same?

Another month of sanctions, Japan, foolish Korea, India—our reserves are running out.

That’s all.

Thanks to the nine brothers who tipped the post. It’s great to have you all here; this post is even more exciting because of you~ (80s ad slogan), hope to see some new brothers, come and promote more! @ShunShiWeiWang1986 @MoDuo @DaiXingYu @WuShiA @JinTianHeKaFeiMa @ChenYouDi @HouBiDuo @WangQingRen

To the 7 brothers who tipped in the last post, and the 13 brothers who tipped in the comments, I bow to you all—no need for words!

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