Perspectives on "5.8 Billion Tons of Standard Coal"

How can the 5.8 billion tons of standard coal energy target ensure energy security?

15th Five-Year Plan Goals

★ Achieve a comprehensive energy production capacity of 5.8 billion tons of standard coal

Reporter: Xie Wei

The bowl of energy must be held in our own hands.

In the draft outline of the “15th Five-Year Plan,” the seemingly simple number actually relates to the lifeline of national development and the daily lives of over 1.4 billion people—“Achieve a comprehensive energy production capacity of 5.8 billion tons of standard coal.”

This is not just a number for five years from now but a “ballast stone” for China to steadily advance its economic engine amid a complex and changing international environment. It concerns every light turned on late at night, every new energy vehicle speeding down the road, and China’s confidence in global industrial chain competition.

Why 5.8 billion? How to reach 5.8 billion?

Why 5.8 billion

Looking back at previous five-year plans, comprehensive energy production capacity has always been an important indicator. At this critical juncture of the “15th Five-Year Plan,” setting it at 5.8 billion tons of standard coal—what is the deeper meaning?

First, it is a safety indicator.

Energy is the food of industry and the lifeblood of the national economy. Currently, the geopolitical landscape is undergoing profound adjustments, international energy markets are volatile, and a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation is accelerating. As a country with over 1.4 billion people in a key period of modernization, our energy demand is still on the rise.

From a practical standpoint, this goal has clear continuity and operability. During the 13th Five-Year Plan, China’s energy output steadily increased from 362 million tons of standard coal to 402 million tons. The 14th Five-Year Plan proposed that by 2025, the comprehensive energy production capacity should not be less than 460 million tons of standard coal.

According to data from the National Energy Administration, by 2025, China’s primary energy production will reach 513 million tons of standard coal, surpassing the 500 million-ton mark for the first time. This means that over the next five years, China needs to add about 67 million tons of standard coal production capacity, with an annual growth rate of approximately 2.48%.

Is this target “high”? Compared to other countries, as the world’s largest energy producer and consumer, 5.8 billion tons is nearly 23% of the current global annual energy consumption and exceeds the single capacity of traditional energy giants like the US and Russia. But this is not about blindly pursuing “bigger numbers.”

Understanding its essence hinges on the word “comprehensive.”

Comprehensive energy production capacity refers to the combined capacity of domestic coal, oil, natural gas, and non-fossil energy sources. It is an important indicator reflecting the country’s ability to ensure energy security. Setting this target helps guide the improvement of domestic energy supply capacity and stabilize energy self-sufficiency at a reasonable level.

The target acts as a “compass” for energy development.

Compared to previous periods, the connotation of 5.8 billion tons during the “15th Five-Year Plan” has undergone profound changes. If in the past the focus was on whether there was enough energy, now the emphasis is on whether it is stable and green.

Yuan Da, Secretary General of the National Development and Reform Commission, explained in a briefing on the draft outline that during the 14th Five-Year Plan, the proportion of renewable energy installed capacity will reach about 60%, with contributions to global new renewable energy installations exceeding 50%. During the “15th Five-Year Plan,” China will intensify efforts to develop non-fossil energy, accelerate the construction of a new power system, and ensure that new electricity consumption is covered by clean energy, pushing coal and oil consumption to peak.

This means building a more resilient, diversified energy supply system—“having grain at home and not panicking.”

While setting this production goal, the draft outline also emphasizes “deepening the implementation of a new energy security strategy, accelerating the building of a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient new energy system, and constructing a strong energy nation” and “promoting the safe, reliable, and orderly replacement of fossil fuels with non-fossil energy.”

According to Yang Changli, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and Chairman of China General Nuclear Power Group, the core of building an energy powerhouse is energy security. Strong supply capacity is fundamental and prerequisite. Safety and reliability are the foundation; energy should be safe and reliable from production to consumption. Green and low-carbon development is the direction—developing environmentally friendly energy and promoting a green, low-carbon transformation of the energy structure. Economic efficiency is key—achieving reliable power supply at the lowest overall cost. Autonomous control is essential—mastering key core technologies to achieve independence and self-reliance in the energy sector.

Anchoring goals and advancing major projects

With the goal set, what is the path forward?

Among the six aspects and 109 major projects proposed in the draft outline of the “15th Five-Year Plan,” energy infrastructure is a key focus. Over 20 related projects cover new industries and sectors, the development of new energy systems, carbon peaking and neutrality, and energy security.

Zheng Zhanjie, Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated that during the “15th Five-Year Plan,” long-term strategic projects will be implemented. This includes continuing investments in the Yajiang Hydropower, Shagehuang new energy base, offshore wind power bases, and other trillion-yuan-level major energy projects.

He emphasized, “Project implementation is a crucial part of planning. We must strengthen ‘projects following the plan.’” According to Ren Yuzhi, Director of the Development Planning Department of the National Energy Administration, efforts will focus on advancing strategic and landmark projects, such as the Yajiang hydropower project, and developing wind and solar bases in the “Three North” regions, Southwest water, wind, and solar integrated bases, coastal nuclear power bases, and offshore wind farms. Optimization of power, oil, and gas backbone channels will also be prioritized. Additionally, smaller, high-quality projects will be accelerated—such as electric vehicle charging networks, integrated wind, solar, hydrogen, and ammonia bases, solar thermal power projects, and zero-carbon parks—to promote the green transformation of thermal systems.

China has already built the world’s largest renewable energy system, but issues like renewable energy curtailment still exist. To reach the 5.8 billion-ton capacity, problems such as “production and transmission” must be addressed.

Focusing on the core issues of curtailment and development of green electricity, Zhong Baosheng, Chairman and General Manager of Longi Green Energy, suggested that to achieve the 2035 goal of over 30% non-fossil fuel consumption, measures such as “mandatory + voluntary” dual drives to activate the consumption market, accelerating international recognition of green certificates, and stabilizing the photovoltaic sector are necessary to build a globally competitive green energy system.

Jiang Yi, Party Secretary and Chairman of China Huadian Corporation, recommended establishing policies conducive to effective renewable energy absorption and development during the construction of a unified national electricity market. Improving market systems and enhancing overall investment and operational efficiency of the power system are also essential.