Cut Off Oil, Trigger Collapse? Trump Revealed to Study "Taking Over" Cuba, Oil Market Faces New Storm

Reuters Finance App — The Trump administration is actively exploring various scenarios for regime change in Cuba, while also seeking ways to open market access for American businesses. An anonymous U.S. official stated that Cuba has long faced severe economic crises, including fuel shortages, prolonged power outages, and worsening social conditions, making the Cuban government more susceptible to external pressure.

Currently, Cuba’s economy is in distress, with the U.S. further applying pressure by cutting off Venezuela’s oil supplies. Trump has publicly expressed his belief that he will “have the privilege of taking over Cuba,” emphasizing that whether through “liberation” or “taking control,” the goal can be achieved. This strategy is seen as another key focus after continuous pressure in the Middle East and Latin America.

Details of the U.S. plan for regime change and business opening in Cuba include “cutting off Venezuela’s oil supply,” “Cuba fuel shortages,” and “energy lifelines,” which pose significant potential support for the crude oil market. On Tuesday (March 24), during Asian trading hours, U.S. crude oil prices fluctuated upward, currently trading around $91.70 per barrel, up about 4% for the day.

Details of U.S. Regime Change Plan in Cuba

Reportedly, the U.S. has developed multiple regime change strategies, one core idea being: Trump demands Cuba make substantial concessions, declare victory, and gradually open its markets. An American official explicitly stated, “The regime change plan is ready,” awaiting the president’s final signal.

The U.S. strategy draws on the approach used with Venezuela, internally referred to as “a rehearsal for Havana.” The Trump administration hopes to use economic pressure to induce leadership change, possibly including pushing President Miguel Díaz-Canel to step down, but not necessarily overthrow the entire regime.

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is engaging with Cuban officials through high-level channels, including informal communications with Raul Castro’s grandson, Raul Guillermo Rodriguez Castro.

Trump emphasizes that he cares more about tangible results than ideological change. Officials revealed that the final decision depends on whether Trump is willing to initiate new confrontations while the Middle East military operations are still ongoing. Negotiations between the U.S. and Cuba are ongoing, but the U.S. is also preparing for more severe responses.

Business Opening and Investment Opportunities

The core focus of the Trump administration is on business opportunities rather than purely political change. Officials hope to open key sectors such as ports, energy, tourism, and real estate to U.S. companies through agreements, unlocking “billions of dollars” in investment potential.

Trump’s style of “regime change” leans toward integrating Cuba into a “Chapter 11” style economic restructuring rather than complete liquidation. The Cuban community in South Florida actively promotes these plans, hoping to facilitate the return of exiled Cubans to invest on the island.

Trump has publicly stated that Cuba “has no oil, no funds, no food,” and is on the brink of collapse, providing an opening for U.S. capital entry.

Legal Actions and South Florida Movements

South Florida is considering criminal charges against members of Cuba’s political and military leadership, including members of the Castro family. Led by the South Florida Federal Prosecutor’s Office, this multi-agency effort aims to provide legal grounds for tougher measures, potentially involving charges related to violence or human rights issues.

The Trump administration has issued an executive order declaring a national emergency regarding Cuba and authorized additional tariffs on goods such as oil supplied to Cuba, further cutting off the island’s energy lifeline. These legal and economic tools are viewed as key leverage for regime change.

Impact on Oil Markets

U.S. strategy toward Cuba essentially combines energy blockade with regime adjustment, a hybrid intervention. While its direct impact on oil prices is less pronounced than conflicts in the Middle East, by intensifying restrictions on Venezuelan oil supplies, increasing geopolitical risks in Latin America, and heightening uncertainties in the Gulf of Mexico, it could provide structural support to oil prices in the short to medium term and heighten market concerns over the fragility of heavy crude supply chains.

If the U.S. implements secondary sanctions on countries importing Cuban oil or escalates actions simultaneously in the Middle East and Latin America, the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market will be re-evaluated.

(US crude oil daily continuous chart, source: Yihuitong)

Future Outlook and Risks

In the short term, negotiations between the U.S. and Cuba will continue, but if Cuba refuses to make sufficient concessions, the Trump administration may quickly shift to more aggressive measures, including military or further economic sanctions. Trump has warned that a “friendly takeover” is possible, or actions could be taken in a less friendly manner, depending on Cuba’s response.

In the medium to long term, if an agreement is reached, U.S. companies could enter the Cuban market on a large scale, significantly altering the geopolitical landscape in Latin America. However, risks include a hardline Cuban regime response that could trigger humanitarian crises, large-scale migration, or divert U.S. resources while conflicts in the Middle East remain unresolved. Any final decision heavily depends on Trump’s personal judgment and Secretary of State Pompeo’s implementation.

Summary

The Trump administration is simultaneously advancing preparations for regime change in Cuba and exploring business openings. The core goal is to leverage economic pressure to gain market access and influence leadership, rather than purely ideological victory.

Cuba’s current energy crisis and power outages provide leverage for the U.S., but Middle Eastern tensions and potential humanitarian risks are significant constraints.

Overall, this strategy reflects a close intertwining of commercial interests and geopolitical considerations, with considerable uncertainty about future developments.

At 14:01 Beijing time, U.S. crude oil is trading at $91.37 per barrel.

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