Barclays raises S&P 500 forecast despite Middle East war, private credit concerns. Here’s why

Wall Street is facing risks everywhere, from a war in the Middle East to worries about private credit and disruption from artificial intelligence. But none are deterring Barclays’ bright outlook for equities. Strategist Venu Krishna raised his year-end S & P 500 target to 7,650 on Tuesday, from 7,400. His new forecast signals upside of more than 16% from Monday’s close. “The macro backdrop has become more fragile … But we believe the U.S. continues to offer stronger nominal growth than other major economies and a secular growth engine in Technology that shows few signs of stopping,” Krishna wrote to clients. “We are incrementally bullish on U.S. equities.” .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 in 2026 Krishna also hiked his S & P 500 earnings forecast to $321 from $305. That’s the second highest among those included in the CNBC Market Strategist Survey . To be sure, the road ahead will likely be “bumpy until we turn a corner,” the strategist added. Stocks have struggled lately as the U.S.-Iran war spiked oil prices, stoking fears of higher inflation and less consumer spending. The S & P 500 is riding a four-week losing streak and is down 4% in March. On top of that, concerns around private credit are mounting. Apollo Global gave investors just 45% of requested withdrawals from its $15 billion private credit fund. And companies across a host of sectors are dealing with disruption from AI. Still, while the “macro regime has turned messier,” it’s still not “hostile” for stocks, according to Krishna. “Our baseline is that concerns over AI disruption, private credit and geopolitics reflect real and material risks, but ones that will nonetheless fall short of derailing the current growth cycle at this point in time,” he said.